A gentleman named Kendall Gott has written a book called "Where The South Lost The War" taking that very position. Gott's view is that losing Henry and Donelson started a chain of events that opened the Tennessee River and quickly led to the loss of Nashville, Memphis, and the eventual splitting of the confederacy along the Mississippi. I'm not sure I agree completely with his hypothesis but he does make some interesting points.
You just reminded me about something, I live in the Murfreesboro, area,(Battle of Stones River), It rained really heavy the days before and after the battle, Because of this the Union Army was able to float supplies down some river to help supply the Union Troops. If this had not happen Gen. Rosecran probably would have had to retreat back to Nashville. Ok now I’m going to have to spend the rest of the day finding out the specfic details about that.
“losing Henry and Donelson started a chain of events that opened the Tennessee River and quickly led to the loss of Nashville, Memphis, and the eventual splitting of the confederacy along the Mississippi. I’m not sure I agree completely with his hypothesis but he does make some interesting points.”
It seems to me that this is missing the obvious. Why credit the battles leading up to the victory at Vicksburg instead of the victory at Vicksburg itself? Plus, it is my understanding that Grant’s victory was far from certain, given that he had to forge through a swamp and lay a prolonged and difficult seige to take the town and split the Confederacy.