That field varies from state to state. It is better to spend resources in those states where the race is tight or close. Forget states like New York or New Jersey. And I don't think McCain is so stupid that he would spend much time in Kahlifohrneeya.
My understanding is that the professionals have a chart of sorts -- something like the one that tells football coaches when to go for the two point conversion -- about what states to comapaign in. It is all tied to the candidate's lead in the national polls, as well as recent actual election history.
NJ really isn't in play for McCain unless he is leading by about 9 points nationally. In reality, he is probably leading by about 4-5 points among likely voters -- enough to put NJ in play (as evidenced by recent polling there) but not yet enough to justify McCain pouring any significant resources into that state. And if he is leading nationally by a large enough margin to make NJ as close as two or three points, he is already leading in enough states to get him the 270 EV he needs anyway.
So, McCain is best off consolidating his gains in places like Ohio and taking the fight to Obama in places that are purple or barely blue (such as Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and especially Michigan). In a three point election like 2004, these states are barely blue. But in a five or six point election, these states will turn red (albeit barely) and NJ will turn very light blue or even purple.
My understanding is that the professionals have a chart of sorts -- something like the one that tells football coaches when to go for the two point conversion -- about what states to comapaign in. It is all tied to the candidate's lead in the national polls, as well as recent actual election history.
NJ really isn't in play for McCain unless he is leading by about 9 points nationally. In reality, he is probably leading by about 4-5 points among likely voters -- enough to put NJ in play (as evidenced by recent polling there) but not yet enough to justify McCain pouring any significant resources into that state. And if he is leading nationally by a large enough margin to make NJ as close as two or three points, he is already leading in enough states to get him the 270 EV he needs anyway.
So, McCain is best off consolidating his gains in places like Ohio and taking the fight to Obama in places that are purple or barely blue (such as Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and especially Michigan). In a three point election like 2004, these states are barely blue. But in a five or six point election, these states will turn red (albeit barely) and NJ will turn very light blue or even purple.