Well, at least you're giving it the ol' college try. Okay, first please provide a source regarding cash on hand. Mine is somewhat dated, but what I found so far surprisingly shows a slight Zimmer lead.
Dem stronghold? Not really. I've shown above that Kerry won by 7 points, and Franks lost a recent Senate race by 3 points after being overwhelmed by Corzine's spending. But let's say I accept your premise that Lautenberg is an incumbent Democrat running in a Dem stronghold, he leads by 7-11 points in various polls and has three times the cash Zimmer does. You still haven't answered the basic question that would plague any incumbent in this position: With all these supposed advantages why can't Sen. Sure Thing break 50% in the polls?
The FEC has all that on line. Link. Just select New Jersey and the senate race.
With all these supposed advantages why can't Sen. Sure Thing break 50% in the polls?
Why can't Senator Elizabeth Dole or Norm Coleman? Mitch McConnell barely breaks the 50 mark, but I'm not sweating him because he's leading by 17 points. Lautenberg's up by 11 points, which seems to indicate that his opponent can't even break 40% in the polls. Now explain just how the hell Zimmer is supposed to win when with a total like that? Link