Week | GOP Electoral Votes |
Probability of 270 |
---|---|---|
7-Jan | 241.05 | 20.18% |
14-Jan | 235.29 | 14.70% |
21-Jan | 234.76 | 14.66% |
28-Jan | 236.58 | 15.44% |
4-Feb | 236.26 | 15.41% |
11-Feb | 237.25 | 16.43% |
18-Feb | 230.61 | 12.69% |
25-Feb | 233.56 | 15.44% |
3-Mar | 234.54 | 16.27% |
10-Mar | 240.26 | 22.49% |
17-Mar | 244.58 | 24.60% |
24-Mar | 249.73 | 28.50% |
31-Mar | 252.18 | 30.87% |
7-Apr | 248.97 | 27.60% |
14-Apr | 249.24 | 27.62% |
21-Apr | 247.86 | 25.60% |
28-Apr | 251.65 | 29.06% |
5-May | 250.84 | 28.07% |
12-May | 252.31 | 29.25% |
19-May | 248.73 | 25.99% |
26-May | 250.15 | 27.10% |
2-Jun | 248.98 | 26.46% |
9-Jun | 247.87 | 26.81% |
16-Jun | 248.41 | 26.06% |
23-Jun | 233.92 | 15.76% |
30-Jun | 234.84 | 16.21% |
14-Jul | 237.43 | 19.14% |
21-Jul | 231.61 | 14.15% |
28-Jul | 233.21 | 15.18% |
4-Aug | 234.45 | 16.45% |
11-Aug | 242.62 | 21.56% |
18-Aug | 246.64 | 25.20% |
25-Aug | 248.30 | 25.59% |
01-Sep | 255.23 | 32.44% |
08-Sep | 254.33 | 30.70% |
14-Sep | 272.47 | 51.00% |
Rasmussen put out a bunch of new polls yesterday and today.
For comparison, the results of 20,000 simulations of another model based on Rasmussen state-by-state polls as of 15-Sep are: GOP Electoral Votes = 275.60, Probability of 270 = 62.48%. The sensitivity of the Rasmussen state-by-state polls is such that a 1% reduction in Obama polling and a 1% increase in McCain polling results in 303.16 Electoral Votes for McCain, with a 95.68% chance of winning.
-PJ
Using 270towin.com I have it McCain 359 Obama 159