I am not a fan of the Iowa Markets. they had Kerry up until Mid October in 2004, and then had the GOP keeping the Senate in 2006 all the way until Nov 1.
Use to follow but not a good predictor.
I didn’t know that. Interesting. I did hear in the past that IEM is so small that it can be manipulated by investment of a few thousand dollars, which a political campaign could certainly do. I wonder...