Polls can mask racism, but ballots won't

The St. Petersburg Times ^ | September 15, 2008 | Adam C. Smith

[Kay Syrah]

Yes, here they come. We are so compromised as an electorate, we simply can’t be trusted to make a decision.

Or as that old Marxist Bertolt Brecht had it:

The Solution

After the uprising of the 17th June
The Secretary of the Writer’s Union
Had leaflets distributed in the Stalinallee
Stating that the people
Had forfeited the confidence of the government
And could win it back only
By redoubled efforts. Would it not be easier
In that case for the government
To dissolve the people
And elect another?

Imagine.

[The KG9 Kid]

I can’t vote for Joe Biden.

[gridlock]

It's known as the "Bradley effect," after former Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley, an African-American who in 1982 was leading nearly every poll in the California governor's race but lost to his white opponent. The theory — not universally accepted as valid — is that some white voters tell pollsters they support a black candidate — out of political correctness — but won't vote for one.

Change the last sentence from "won't vote for one" to "don't vote for him", and the above statement is much improved.

The Bradley Effect as construed by the Democrat whiners assumes two things: That voters will lie to pollsters and they will not vote for a black man because he is black. This is more assumptions than one needs to explain the polling discrepancies.

If the voters are simply lying to the pollsters and then voting for the non-black candidate because they happen to support him, rather than out of any racial animus, the poll is still distorted, but the actual vote is not tainted by racism. This theory is simpler, because it makes only one assumption instead of two. As we all know, Occam's Razor suggests that simpler theories that require fewer assumptions are more likely to be correct.

And, frankly, I think this view aligns more closely with what people think of pollsters as opposed to the actual vote. I, for one, think of pollsters as the worst kind of pond scum, who are destructive and malicious by their very nature, so I will lie to a pollster without hesitation. On the other hand, I hold the vote to be very dear, and take my vote much more seriously. I suspect a lot of people feel that way.

So, in my view, the Bradley Effect reflects a flaw in polling methodology, but in no way indicates racial prejudice in the actual vote. The vote is undistorted, but the polls are not reliable.

Since the vote is (still!) what matters in this country, I don't worry about the Bradley Effect, or think it reflects poorly on the electorate. To the contrary, it shows me that the voters are willing to confound pollsters and resist the forces of political correctness when they enter the voting booth. This is a good thing.

[Penny]

Indeed, the excuses do begin!!!

Over the past two weeks, I have observed no fewer than ten "news" articles offering preemptive racial reasons for whites shifting in high numbers to the GOP column. Of course, when McCain/Palin win, the whites, not ideological differences, will be the cause heralded from all the liberals and their news outlets.

Did you notice the end of this writer's article? He listed the past few elections and the percentage of white votes.

Writers like this one are sooooooooo transparent, aren't they?

Regards . . . Penny

[CBF]

Or a Communist of any color....

[RayChuang88]

I think Mr. Smith forgot this potent mix of why Governor Palin is such a huge draw: she is simultaneously successful in achievements and still stay politically conservative. That is something that the NOW gang just cannot comprehend. I would not be surprised that within 20 years we will have our first black President, and it will also be a one with center-right views.

[gridlock]

The 95+% of African-Americans who voted for Obama in the primaries, and who state their intention to vote for him in the general, are NOT engaged in race-based voting?

You don't get it.

Racism in voting patterns can only explain when people vote against the African-American candidate. All votes for the African-American candidate reflect the mature and measured opinion of an engaged and intelligent electorate.

Let us assume, for the sake of argument, that the African-American community holds no racial animus toward Barack Obama. So, if Obama gets 98.5% of the African-American vote, this reflects the vote that he should get in any population that holds no racial animus toward him. So when Barack Obama only gets 36.5% of the white vote, it is abundantly clear that 52% of whites are seething racists who are not voting for Obama just because he is black.

This is not Rocket Science, Sean.

[xDGx]

Don’t forget that ‘objective’ Politifact is a ‘service’ of the supposedly ‘unbiased’ St. Peteersburg Times.

file that away for reference

[pabianice]

6-12%, making polls useless.

[j_k_l]

It's About Resume And Not Race.

[xkaydet65]

It's not racism that's at issue. it's the fear of being thought of as racist if one answers that they are voting for McCain. The racists are going to say they are voting for mcCain without any guilt. The person whom society has made to feel guilty will lie to the pollster, even if their reasons for voting against the haloed one are everything but racist.

The result, ask Tom Bradley and David Dinkins.

[EEDUDE]

“Palin on the ticket now provides some limited PC cover.”

That may be. But maybe it’s just as simple as this: Palin gives us something to get excited about.

As the guy said, “The McCain campaign has been about as exciting as dishwater”. Whatever his other attributes may be, McCain himself generates the same amount of excitement.

But I guess I’ll take what I can get!

[EEDUDE]

“The Bradley Effect is the product of Political Correctness.”

That is insightful. I really never thought about it that way!

[gridlock]

My sister from Michigan, who is a huge Hillary Obama supporter, was working on me the other day. She was trying to convince me that I really have to vote for Obama, even if I don't support him on the issues, because an Obama victory will be a huge step toward racial reconciliation in this country and we can't let this "historical" opportunity slip through our fingers.

She went on and on about how Obama and McCain's position was minor, too small to even mention, on issue after issue, that the overriding concern in this election had to be race, and that anybody but a knuckle-dragging racist had no choice but to vote for Obama in November.

I asked her who she supported in the primaries (not that it matters, since she is in Michigan), and she said "Hillary". She more or less accepted my position after that.

[HalfFull]

Well, it will be a factor...like it or not.

As a Virginia resident, I remember when Gov. Wilder(Dem. black governor) ran against a man name Coleman. Exit polls, which most agree are pretty accurate, had Wilder winning by a substantial margin. When the actual votes were counted, Wilder barely squeaked by. That shows, in my opinion, that many democrats lied to the exit posters and voted for Coleman even though they said they voted for Wilder.

[Red in Blue PA]

White Guilt Ping!

[counterpunch]

I can’t vote for Joe Biden.

Exactly.
I just can’t vote for a ticket that has such a blatant racist on it, who pursued “a high-tech lynching for uppity blacks who in any way deign to think for themselves”, who thinks most blacks are neither clean nor articulate, and who was not joking when he said “you cannot go to a 7/11 or a Dunkin’ Donuts unless you have a slight Indian accent.”
 

[xDGx]

Note that they include statistics for white voters at the end of that article but NOT black voters.

Doubt if Wash Post / ABC would publicize the results of that poll.

[Big Horn]

Don't BO have more Arab blood than Black?

[Lady Heron]

They can't say that all Americans are racist when not voting for Obama, I mean lets get real republicans were never going to vote for an almost marxist democrat.

It is the democrats that are not voting for their own guy.