Election 2008 Latest Polls (September 12, 2008)

RealClearPolitics ^ | Friday, September 12

[Saab-driving Yuppie]

A bit concerned that if you use RCP tossup states and start peeling them off to one side or the other, it’s still obvious to me that Obama is close on some key red states. McCain, as of now, per the RCP average, is not in a position to win back any blue states from 2004.

They have IN as a tossup— barely. Put that to McCain and it’s 227-217 us. After that, we are defending 52EVs and the bad guys are defending 42 EVs. Unless we can pull in MI or PA, Obama can take only CO and win. Or NM and NV. Or one of those and NH.

But if we get MI or PA (or even both) then nothing else matters. We could lose OH and VA plus one of the western states currently a tossup and win.

The Ohio news media might be even more in the tank for Barry H.O. than the national press.

[sofaman]

Yes, my beeber is stuned because this is hugh AND series!

[comebacknewt]

As badly as I want this race to be over, Obama is not done for yet. There is still a long, long way to go in this race and either candidate could win it.

It is going to be interesting to see if the Gallup poll deteriorates over the weekend. Weekend polls traditionally are rough on GOP candidates and today marks two days in a row where McCain has lost a point off of his lead.

Plus, while Charlie Gibson didn't even come close to landing the knockout punch he was seeking against Palin, he may have caused some of her soft support to fall away.

I'm not trying to be a downer. I still really like our chances come November, but I hate seeing us celebrate too soon. There is still a lot of hard work to do before we can win.

Lets not get complacent.

[Claud]

When you read all of the nitty gritty inside these polls you know Obama is doomed.

Really? What stands out to you in particular?

[GiovannaNicoletta]

I want to see poll results after hurricane Ike goes through and wipes out the refineries in Galveston and people are paying $5 a gallon for gas and we all get a nice just-before-the-election reminder of who has been responsible for keeping more refineries from being built and who has prevented offshore drilling in places other than the Gulf which would provide more sources of gasoline and keep prices down.

I want to see the poll results after the hurricane is over.

[RogerWilko]

And the DUmmies are running for more drugs. ;-)

I've been DUmpster diving off and on all day, and even over the past week. MOST of the DUmmies are in DUH-Nile over all these polls and think they're all rigged.

I hope they keep thinking that way and when they get completely BLOWN out of the water in Nov, the "Freudenschade" (DUmmie speak) should be DU-Liteful!

[Charles Henrickson]

As badly as I want this race to be over, Obama is not done for yet. There is still a long, long way to go in this race and either candidate could win it. . . . Lets not get complacent.

You are absolutely right. Things are trending well right now, but this election could go either way.

[LiberConservative]

McCain up by 4 in my beloved Ohio. “As goes Ohio, so goes the country”.

[word_warrior_bob]

I always go into all of the detailed sections of the polls.

The huge swing in the female vote.

The huge swing in independents.

The interesting dichotomy in how people don’t like Bush but they think the reason we haven’t been hit again is largely because of the action of government (in the 70’s).

The large percentage of people who think the WOT is a big issue and how overwhelmingly they trust McCain over Obama.

The trends of how McCain has firmed up his base and Obama is losing his.

Sometimes people post links to polls (here and elsewhere) that are pay-to-see that give all of these detailed questions. Sometimes if you poke around you can see the polls that ask like 50 different questions instead of who are you voting for.

Even on certain issues where you would expect Obama to have a big lead (economy?, don’t get me started) his lead is tiny.

Tons of stuff if you dig, and trending better and better since Palin, McCain/Palin is gathering storm, a rolling tsunami, a steadily moving glacier.

ALSO, READ THESE!!!

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Front_Page/JI03Aa02.html

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Front_Page/JB26Aa01.html

[CharlesWayneCT]

One side effect of picking Sarah Palin is that some people who may have felt compelled to vote for Obama even though they didn’t want to, simply because of guilt, can now assuage that “guilt” by voting for a female VP candidate.

So they may be willing to admit they aren’t voting for Obama, thinking they no longer will look racist because they are voting for a woman.

[Tennessean4Bush]

If that Washington state poll and the NJ poll I saw on another thread are correct, it explains why Obama has been so bothered by Sarah Palin.

[Tennessean4Bush]

And believe me, when I say yellow dog democrats, they are about as much that as you can get.

I can certainly vouch for the same. Here in TN I know a whole lot of Democrats who are going to cross over and vote for McCain. That is why I think that FL is not really going to be that close in the end. I think the panhandle and rural parts of the state are going to be so heavily weighted toward McCain among people who might otherwise vote Democrat. The state I do NOT understand is Colorado. How in the heck is Obama up 4-5 points in Colorado? Surely that state hasn't flipped that quickly.

[gunner03]

If either John McCane or Sarah came to the Eastern part of the state for a rally, he’d win Washington.