North Korean Leader Under the Microscope

If North Korean leader Kim Jong-il had a chance to watch South Korean television news over the past couple of days, he might well be surprised at just how thoroughly informed his Southern neighbors are about his health. An average South Korean may very well know a lot more about Kim's health news, including reports on his recent stroke, than the average Pyongyang resident.

South Koreans can thank their spy agency, the National Intelligence Service (NIS), for that. The agency has been able to provide a highly detailed health status on the North Korean leader. Its ability to glean information on one of the most closely guarded secrets in the reclusive nation has surprised many observers. How did the agency pull it off? By using what spies call a network of ``human intelligence,'' or ``HUMINT'' for short.

Kim's conspicuous absence Tuesday evening from the Pyongyang military parade celebrating the 60th anniversary of the state's founding set off a frenzy of speculation by the media and North Korea watchers around the world.

On the very next day, during a briefing session at the National Assembly, National Intelligence Service Director Kim Sung-ho offered a detailed update to lawmakers on the North Korean leader's health. At the session, the spy chief said that Kim Jong-il is recovering after suffering a stroke though it wasn't certain whether he could return to his pre-stroke condition. ``Kim is now able to walk with some assistance,'' the spy chief said, almost as if his agency staff were able to keep a watch on the reclusive leader.

The report quoted a senior government official as saying that the NIS has been aware since mid-August that Kim's health had taken a turn for the worse. And since then, the agency has stepped up its spying efforts.

The NIS suspected that something was afoot when Kim stopped making public appearances beginning early last month. The agency alerted its network of agents in areas with a significant North Korean presence, including Beijing and Dandong, near China's border with North Korea, to help gather information from their contacts. The spy agency questioned businesspeople visiting the Gaeseong Industrial Complex as well as Pyongyang.

It also sought cooperation from the United States for access to U.S. spy satellite images and reconnaissance photographs. But the network of human intelligence gathering turned out to be best when it came to gathering news on Kim's condition.

The NIS was able to find out through its extensive network of informants and North Korean contacts that teams of medical doctors from China and France were dispatched to Pyongyang to diagnose and treat Kim's condition. The agency was reportedly able to verify the information through Chinese sources.

It is interesting to note that quite specific and detailed information was coming out from N. Korea in a short time.

Part of it may be due to rampant corruption and emergence of vast underground network of smuggling, during last decade. Anything is for a sale at right price. If authorities crack down on it, it dies down for a while and resume again at a higher price. Even inside information is for sale, and the information can be passed on through this extensive underground network, which was initially set up for smuggling goods and drugs in all likelihood.

Another interesting angle to contemplate is that even senior officials are sensing that, one way or another, the regime is nearing its end soon. They have to think about their future after the current regime. First, it is possible that they won't survive if they lined up for the faction which could lose out later in power struggle triggered by succession intrigue. Second, even if they survive, they are afraid that the regime may not last long.

They have to find an insurace against future disaster which is quite likely. The obvious insurance is to ally with outside powers who can hold sway over the future of N. Korean state. They could be cultivating the channel to either China or S. Korea, and pass along useful information, solidifying their connection. That way, even if the current regime is gone, they can survive with the help of these countries.

That may be why there is a sudden surge of intelligence from the deep inside of N. Korean regime, right up to Kim Jong-il's immediate surroundings.

In short, N. Korean power elites are choosing side both internally and externally. I think all these development would be quite disconcerting to Kim Jong-il. Quite a few of his underlings could be either informants or spies for China or S. Korea.

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