Posted on 09/11/2008 6:39:17 PM PDT by thatdewd
(My comment) The site FiveThirtyEight uses a unique model to crunch the polling data from around the country...and they show McCain with an electoral college lead: Obama 266 - McCain 272.
"There are several principal ways that the FiveThityEight methodology differs from other poll compilations:
Firstly, we assign each poll a weighting based on that pollster's historical track record, the poll's sample size, and the recentness of the poll. More reliable polls are weighted more heavily in our averages.
Secondly, we include a regression estimate based on the demographics in each state among our 'polls', which helps to account for outlier polls and to keep the polling in its proper context.
Thirdly, we use an inferential process to compute a rolling trendline that allows us to adjust results in states that have not been polled recently and make them ‘current’.
Fourthly, we simulate the election 10,000 times for each site update in order to provide a probabilistic assessment of electoral outcomes based on a historical analysis of polling data since 1952. The simulation further accounts for the fact that similar states are likely to move together, e.g. future polling movement in states like Michigan and Ohio, or North and South Carolina, is likely to be in the same direction.
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
That said, it is very left-leaning and the postings and comments on the various polls and the 538 projections are from an Obama point of view. So caustion is advised.
Interesting site.
Seems a bit biased to the left though despite showing McCain leading.
(Do I have to say it?)
When McCain got 300 EV Wed morning after the election I will be happy until then its a Work in progress.
Lets not get lulled into a trance there still a lot of things that can go wrong.
So a Liberal website is saying that the Electoral College is leaning toward McCain. Imagine what would be the result if it was a neutral website.
You are so right. The confidence around here is starting to worry me.
This is a great site, huge amounts of information. The simulation approach is by far the best way to make predictions under uncertainty, when you can estimate the distribution of possible results state by state.
What it says is this race is tight as a tick. It all comes down to OH, CO, NV, MI and WI.
Color me skeptical, not because I don’t think McCain will win, it’s just that this sounds an awful lot like the way Dr. Hansen measures temperature.
I’ve read his site for awhile now. He’s a self-disclosed Obama supporter who basically sits at home and takes all the polls he can find and seems to jumble them up in his own algorithms.
It isn’t real scientific since he relies on other polling entities data and has a Dem bias, but I do find the guy’s stuff interesting to read.
The reason you see so many Democratic replies is that his site was touting an Obama electoral blowout for awhile, so many of my democratic friends would go there claiming his site as “proof” of an Obama landslide soon to come.
In fairness, the guy has reversed his data now as these polls come in much more favorable to McCain.
His hands are backwards.
This is not the first time McCain has lead in their projections. I think it is safe to say they never expected him to reopen a lead heading into the middle of September.
Interesting, I always considered that site to be in the tank for the Dems.
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