I'm still not sure if it's a coincident indicator or a lagging indicator of conventional wisdom. It sure as hell isn't predictive of anything!
The price is not intended to be any sort of predictive indicator. The price reflects instantaneous decisionmaking of market participants.
Intrade was about a week behind the news cycle this time.
I’m still not sure if it’s a coincident indicator or a lagging indicator of conventional wisdom.
***Intrade has a liberal bias. Yesterday I posted an analysis that said there was $7 of free money on the table. I didn’t expect it to evaporate so quickly.
Trying to Quantify Liberal Bias at Intrade
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-backroom/2078429/posts