[impeachedrapist]

For all practical purposes: McCain cannot win without Ohio. Obama cannot win without Pennsylvania

If the race follows 2004's model, that pretty much sums it up. However, I think we'll see some states flip.

[nathanbedford]

I agree.

For example, if we can take Pennsylvania McCain will surely have no defensive worries in places like Virginia or Missouri or Colorado. If we take Pennsylvania he might well take Iowa, Michigan and/or Wisconsin.

I think this scenario, as a departure from 2004, is more likely now than a scenario in which Obama takes Ohio, Florida, Colorado and Virginia.