[LadyNavyVet]

I redid Rasmussen’s numbers using Ras’ party affiliation percentages from Oct. 2004, immediately preceding the 2004 election. Basing off the “without leaners” number of 46-46, I get McCain 52, Obama 48.

[libscum]

What were the differences in the Party affiliations in 2004 comapred to 2008 ?

[Sooth2222]

I redid Rasmussen’s numbers using Ras’ party affiliation percentages from Oct. 2004, immediately preceding the 2004 election. Basing off the “without leaners” number of 46-46, I get McCain 52, Obama 48.

That's consistent with my SWAG (Scientific Wild A** Guess) estimate, too. McCain/Palin is in no worse shape and probably somewhat better shape than Bush/Cheney was at this time in 2004. There may be some "Bradley Effect" and "Palin Effect", too, but we won't see that until the polls close. I'd be ecstatic with 54-46.