Posted on 09/08/2008 7:29:34 PM PDT by GOPGuide
Democrat Barack Obama's once double-digit lead in Washington state is no more, according to this latest SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KING-TV Seattle and KATU-TV Portland Oregon. In an election today, 09/08/08, eight weeks till votes are counted, it's Obama 49%, McCain 45%. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll 4 weeks ago (before both candidates had named their running mates), Obama is down 2 points; McCain is up 1. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll 8 weeks ago, Obama is down 6; McCain is up 6. Obama led by 17 points in June, led by 16 points in July, led 8 points in August, leads 4 points today. Among voters with no college education, there is continuing movement to McCain. Obama led by 15 points in July, now trails by 8, a 23-point erosion. Among voters who earn less than $50K a year, there is continuing movement to McCain. Obama's once 26-point lead among the lower-income group is now 5 points, a 21-point erosion. Among voters older than McCain, Obama had led by 24 points in July, now trails by 1, a 25-point erosion. McCain always has run well among Conservatives, but his advantage among Conservatives has grown from 4:1 in May to 11:1 today. In Eastern Washington state, Obama led 5:4 in June, but McCain leads 2:1 today.
Among women, McCain is up 9 points from June, Obama is down 11 points from June. McCain had been gaining ground among female voters before he picked Sarah Palin. That continues. Among men, Obama leads by 4 today, a 5-point shift toward Obama from last month, when McCain led by 1. This is one of the few bright spots in today's poll data for the Democrats.
I think in a worst-case scenario, BO could definitely take OH, NM and NV. Even if you think OH is out of reach for him, but CO is not, I’d think at least NM and likely NV are possibles. However, the trend is indeed our friend. Probably some twists and turns on the way to Nov. 4, though.
I’m speaking of worst-case WITH current momentum. That could change by election day.
Kerry won Washington by 7 and Oregon by 4. Both could be considered battleground states, but in a close election only Oregon has a chance of flipping. Gore only carried Oregon by 0.4%, though Nader took 5%.
Send Palin to Pierce and Snohomish counties. Send McCain to Bellevue. Pierce is very blue collar, so gets the working man's Democrat vote. Seattle itself is mostly a loss cause. Bellevue is Rhino land and McCain will do well there.
“McCain will not win Washington if the race is close nationally. I’m not terribly confident about Oregon, either.
But Rossi could win, which would be both hugh and series.”
The trend is against Obama. I know McCain isn’t likely to win Washington, but it is interesting that he is breathing down Obama’s neck in a state that SHOULD be a gimme for the Democrats in a Democrat year.
And if its close in WA, then Palin might pull Rossi over the finish line even if McCain loses the state himself.
The change is within the margin of error, especially considering the smaller subsample of men.
Hey, again! I agree that Rossi could use the help, but as I said to someone else in another thread, he could tone down the “if you’re voting for Obama, vote for me, too” ads. Yuck.
I think there are a few sexists, still. Maybe not 5 points worth, but there are a few. I have a non-native-born (but now citizen) coworker who suddenly swung to Obama with the Palin choice..but his culture is very sexist. He says it's her experience, but I don't buy it.
I like your best case scenario, but if Washington goes Republican I’ll eat my hat. This place is so freakishly leftist, it’s a source of constant depression for me. Also, the Seattle Times and Seattle P-I began churning out anti-Palin hit pieces immediately upon her announcement as the VP nominee. I think they feel that their proximity to her home state obligates them to take the lead on the smears.
Did you see this one Miss Didi?
Obama May Delay Reversing Tax Cuts
ap | 09/07/08 | ap
Posted on 09/08/2008 7:20:21 PM PDT by tomnbeverly
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2077838/posts
[snip] Democrat Barack Obama says he would delay rescinding President Bush’s tax cuts on wealthy Americans if he becomes the next president and the economy is in a recession, suggesting such an increase would further hurt the economy. [end]
“It’ll be okay to hurt the economy in future years, just not right away at the beginning of my reign, er, term. Hurting the economy would hurt working people, and that would be contrary to my Muslim faith.”
If we see M-P expend real resources in Oregon/Washington, I certainly hope it’s because they really think they can win, rather than a game of “let’s spend resources there to make the other side spend resources there.” Odds are this ends up as a knife-fight to get to 270 EV, but if the momentum continues, maybe you can get Wisconsin and make a run at Minnesota, or get Oregon and make a run at Washington.
Sarah has California in the bag.
Obummer has no chance here. Mexicans see him as taxing them out of their jobs. They were touting McCain before the Palin miracle, but the pollsters will not poll them. (can you say Push Poll?)
California? That would mean a tsunami. I’m not quite THAT enthusiastic. LOL
I heard we cut the lead in D.C. down to 81.
I am expecting McCain to pick up a majority of the states that Bush lost by 5% or less in 2004.
What site is that? I want to play with the maps too.
Those are some tectonic shifts, momentum, momentum, momentum.
That RAT stole that last election didn’t she?
That sums it up nicely.
“Washington is a tough nut to crack for the GOP”
Yes it is. The Rossi campaign has been a disappointment so far.
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