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FLORIDA:

The Republican nominee is viewed favorably by 61% of Floridian voters and unfavorably by 37%. Obama’s numbers are 55% favorable, 45% unfavorable. As for the Vice Presidential nominees, the ratings are similar. Sarah Palin is viewed favorably by 54% and unfavorably by 42%. Biden receives favorable ratings from 51% and unfavorable ratings from 43%.

It's difficult to imagine us losing FL with those internals, but IIRC Obama has boosted his favs since last poll. FWIW...

The Republican nominee is viewed favorably by 61% of Floridian voters and unfavorably by 37%. Obama’s numbers are 55% favorable, 45% unfavorable.

The same results as Colorado. These are the most recent numbers and they coincide with all the new polls showing McCain ahead.

There’s just no way to know. Local newspapers have had articles about Obama registering 600,000 new black voters (Florida’s population is 16% black.) New registrants are not going to pass any pollster’s likely voter filter.

There are too many unknowables this time around to predict anything with confidence. McCain has high favorables, so maybe he wins the undecideds. Obama is big with the youth vote, which greatly increased turnout in 2004 and kept Kerry competitive with Bush. Kerry lost every age demographic except the under 30s. Most of the youth vote is cell phone only and therefore not included in Ras’ polling.

I will repeat what I said earlier. In the middle of McCain’s convention bump, these are not encouraging numbers for Florida. Maybe it’s an outlier. We’ll know soon enough.

I think the election overall is going to be a squeaker, with Florida among the squeakiest of states.