“Where polling is concerned, if the Pubbie isn’t up and the poll was done by Rasmussen, the contrarian view is the accurate one.”
Quite an assumption.
“I come on these threads for the entertainment.”
That says it all.
I’m holding my breath waiting for you to explain the wild discrepancies I’ve pointed out now to you in multiple posts, including historical analysis. Or are you just here for entertainment?
“I’m holding my breath waiting for you to explain the wild discrepancies I’ve pointed out now to you in multiple posts...”
Exhale. I explained them. Different populations, different MoEs. Red state, blue state differentials. When you poll different populations, you get differing results. Things are in great flux right now, polling wise, due to convention bumps. That adds statistical noise.
If it helps you sleep tonight, add 4.5% to McCain’s number and take 4.5% from Obama’s.
I base my faith in Rasmussen on his results. He called 2004 for both candidates within less than a point (Gallup didn’t) and only made one bad call in a state race. He called all 24 races he polled in 2006 correctly.