What’s the normal bounce after a convention.
I know Obama did not get his bounce like everyone thought, but what is the typical bounce?
McCain is now leading in the RCP Average: McCain: 46.7 vs. Obama 45.7 — this is basically dead heat, but still, what a difference.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html
They also show Intrade oddes: Obam 56% vs. McCain 44% — McCain used to be under 40, then got to 40 and now he seems to have an upward momentum.
I hope and expect this to continue, now that people see the character, integrity and experience of the McCain/Palin ticket, vs the Obamemperor with no clothes.
5-10 points is typical
I’m not certain of the historical average.
I’m pretty sure Bush got a double digit bounce, and Kerry far less then that. But then Kerry had no charisma and their entire convention was very awkwardly put together. The Gop convention in 2004 was one of the best managed in my memory. IMO, this year’s GOP convention wasn’t as well managed but the addition of Sarah to the ticket made up for that so it wasn’t as noticeable.
In this election everyone was citing a 10%-15% bounce was expected for Obama, and he ended up probably with an averaged 6% bounce. He underperformed.
I think Republicans were counting on anything from a 6%-10% bounce this election. Early signs are that they got it.