Absolutely they are oversampling Democrats to almost 40% of the sample. GOP they give about 32%, independents 28%. This is based on party ID surveys that go back this entire year but do not take into account the fact that with Sarah Palin on the ticket Republicans are “coming back home” in a big way.
Should also have included you in my last post. Many thanks :)
I've watched polls for 15 years. Polls of "adults" are usually between 3-4 points in favor of the Dems from the real election day outcome; if you narrow it to "registered" voters, it shrinks to 2 points off; and if you go with "likely" voters, you are pretty much accurate.
Ras has Obama up 1. That's pretty close.