Statistics that we know:
From cnn.com : Voting participation in the 2004 election: 37% Republican, 37% Democrat, 26% “Independent”. Popular vote, Bush 52 million to Kerry 49 million. Electoral College 286 to 252. “Independents” went 49-48% for Kerry.
From the Roper Center: Voting participation in the 2000 election: 35% Republican, 39% Democrat, 26% “Independent”. Popular vote, Bush 50.5 million to Gore 51 million.
Electoral College 271 to 266. “Independents” went 48-46% for Bush.
Comment: In 2000, even though Independents split their votes, and even though Dems had +4% more participation in the voting than Republicans, Bush got about as many votes as Gore, not to mention carrying the day in the Electoral College.
To add to that, in 2004, even though Independents split their vote, and even though Repubs had just equal participation in voting to the Dems, the Republican Bush received 3 million more votes than Kerry, and won a small but still comfortable victory in the Electoral College (Ohio was just not that close, with Bush winning by 120,000 votes out of 5 million, i.e., 2%.)
Bottom line: With even voting participation by the parties, or even with a small edge (e.g., +4%) by Democrats, the GOP can still achieve victory. Add to that a significant swing by Women over to the GOP, and you have a formula for certain victory.
“With even voting participation by the parties, or even with a small edge (e.g., +4%) by Democrats, the GOP can still achieve victory.”
Yes, they can, although the Dem edge is about 7.6 points right now. That has to change.
“Add to that a significant swing by Women over to the GOP, and you have a formula for certain victory.”
Yes, if that happens, it’s game over for the Dems. I’ve already posted that above. The soccer moms are the very women the Palin pick was designed to pull. We don’t know yet if it will work.