“For September 2008, the Rasmussen targets are 39.7% Democrat, 32.1% Republican, and 28.2% unaffiliated — a 7.6% edge for Democrat participation. We WILL see a change in the polls as we get closer to the election, of this there is no doubt.”
Rasmussen’s targets change based on the electorate at the time. He’s been tracking the electorate for years, and there were many more self-identified Republicans in 2004 than there are now. The Pubbies have no one but themselves to blame for that, for not living up to their conservative promises. Their numbers tanked with the amnesty proposal in ‘05 (gee, thanks McCain) and have never recovered.
This is BHO’s convention bump, so the polls will of course tighten. I’ve been saying for months that this election was going to be very, very close. I stand by that.
The statistics will show that on Election Day, equal amounts of Democrats and Republicans will vote; so it has been and so it will be.
That fact is not represented, so far, in apportionments shown by the polls.
Even Susan Estrich estimated yesterday that 6 million of the 18 million Hillary voters will switch to the Republicans, and she is a Dem true believer.