Here is gallup’s analysis of its data:
The new polling shows that many of these disaffected Clinton voters have now returned to the loyal Democratic fold. The percentage of former Clinton voters who say they are certain to vote for Obama has now jumped to 65%. Although 12% of former Clinton voters persist in saying that they are going to vote for McCain, that’s down from 16%, and the percentage who are undecided has dropped in half.
Overall, support for Obama among this group has moved from 70% pre-convention to 81% post-convention.
To be sure, former Clinton supporters are still less enthusiastic than former Obama supporters in the post-convention poll. And, the fact that 12% still say they are going to vote for McCain is no doubt troubling to the Obama camp.
Hillary got 18 million votes, assume 50% of those were from women... that’s 9 Million women. If you assume 10% will vote McCain/Palin so they can vote for a woman and/or spite Fauxbama, that’s nearly 1 Million votes.. that’s a very significant amount of votes in an election that will likely have about 110-120 Million voters total.
The idea that democrats went home post convention is not suprising. The question is how strong they are for the guy, and Fauxbama’s support even among dems is not deep. These numbers can change, but even if they don’t victory is not going to come from the 80% of dems who are going to vote dem regardless of the nominee, or the 80% of repubs who are going to vote R no matter who the nominee is. its the 40% of the rest of the voters who will decide the election.