I share your concerns. Nothing wrong with Palin, but it's all about electoral math and her selection doesn't really change it. She may do nothing more than attract a larger share of the popular vote in states like New York and California, where McCain is going to lose anyway.
Obama’s pick of Biden — a senator from a small electoral state — opened the door for the Palin pick. I think if Obama had picked a running mate from a larger state McCain would have been forced to follow suit.
I also think that the Biden pick was aimed at Pennsylvania, not Delaware. Biden is well-known in the Philadelphia area as this is the Media market that serves Wilmington, DE. Obama’s grip on the suburban Philly vote is not as strong as was Gore’s or Kerry’s. Picking Biden was designed to shore that up.
But here’s the thing — Pennsylvania is a state that doesn’t really figure in the McCain calculus. If McCain were to win PA then Obama has almost no shot. That said, it’s going to be close enough in PA that McCain can pin Obama here for much of the campaign — forcing him to waste resources.
That’s the way I see it.