That’s ZOGBY, not GALLUP. That’s very important. In 2006, Zogby had Blackwell within 5 points of Strickland in OH governor’s race, but Blackwell lost by 25!! Zogby’s is an internet poll and highly suspicious. Gallup is left-tilted by using “registered” voters instead of “likely,” but it is consistent. Rasmussen uses “likely,” but it’s always a crapshoot as to who is a “likely” voter. Ras was very good in 2006, and I think he’s got it dead on this time.
You’re absolutely right. I was watching Meet the Distressed as I typed, and they were mentioning Gallup and I got my wires crossed. Mea culpa.
That same “Wilder Effect” will benefit McCain. That’s why you have to add a minimum of five ponts to McCain’s numbers.