Posted on 08/30/2008 10:27:50 AM PDT by flyfree
The bounce Obama got for a couple of nights were in response the Hillary’s speech (Tues.) and Bill’s speech (Wed.). It’s terrible news for him that the poll flatlined after his own Greek god speech.
As the surveys conducted two and one days ago roll off the rolling sample, I believe the margin would fall to 3 points even if the Republicans weren’t having their convention. With the Republican convention, I suspect McCain will be up by 3 points in five or six days.
Please see post 33
Polling during a primary is incredibly difficult. Relatively few voters vote in primaries, so every pollster has to make an educated guess in determining who will actually be most likely to vote. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. General elections -- like the one coming up in November -- are much easier to poll since the numbers of people voting are so much greater.
I read a post where rass have obama up by 3 or 4. This race is over. McCain/Palin by ten. Obviously we cannot underestimate the fact that the media whores are going to do all they can to push obama over the finish line. But we cannot underestimate the fact that obama and biden are condescending idiots either. I don’t like McCain, he was certainly not on my short or long list to be president. But the guy is smart, and after saddleback I’m convinced he won’t have any senior moments. And he can keep the mean old john under wraps through the debates.
Dukakis was up by 17 points at his high mark
It is important to note four things: 1st, a Democrat needs to have a lead of 10 percent or more in the Gallup poll to have any chance of winning. Barry is only ahead by 8%; 2nd, this is a poll if registered voters, not likely voters; and 3rd, if you look at the internals of this poll Barry’s lead is produced by leads in the West and the East, area’s where he is already electorally leading; 4th, the internals show that his leads in those regions has stayed roughly the same, they simply reweighed the numbers to give him a bounce.
No, that's not true. Yes, the numbers are the same, but the poll is very different.
Gallup's tracking poll is a 3-day rolling average of daily polls. Obama's bounce increased every day of the convention.
Friday's 49-41 result was an average of the three last days of the convention, before Obama's speech. Today's Gallup poll shows the huge Obama numbers from the last two days of the convention, after the speech, averaged in with the first take on Palin. Obama's numbers should have gone through the roof of the first polling day after his speech, but instead they went sharply down because of Palin.
Dukakis’ results were 20 years ago. Demographics change.
This bounce looks typical of modern times. We’ll know more after the GOP convention.
And . . . FYI, debates are a manufactured drama event by the media. There is no real evidence of significant poll movement after any particular debate. Broadcast journalism instinctively want people to watch TV. Broadcast pundits want something new to talk about.
There is no evidence debates decide anything.
Gallup over-samples Democrats and he polls registered, rather than likely, voters. Rasmussen is more accurate. IIRC, Ras had The Oh up one or three yesterday, not eight.
Katrina hit at Cat 3? I could’ve sworn I heard some met say it hit Cat 5, that’s why I was thinking it might not be that bad.
We won’t know anything for sure until we see McCain’s bounce. Rasmussen had both Kerry and Bush getting a +2.8 bounce coming out of their conventions: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2004/week_by_week_numbers
The difference is that Bush held on to his and Kerry’s faded quickly.
Obama got a +4 in Rasmussen’s daily tracking. The best McCain has EVER done in Ras’ daily tracking is even or +1 if you include leaners. McCain needs a big bounce to take a lead and he needs to hold on to it if he expects to win. We won’t really be able to get a feel for where things stand until a week or so after the Pubbie convention is over.
Ras’ daily tracking so far this election season:
It means the polling today is back to where it was at the beginning of the RAT convention -- essentially even.
As the big Obambi days roll off over the weekend, the race will get very close again. Now we just need a nice bump in the polls during our convention, and we're in business.
Gallup samples randomly. More Democrats appear because more identify themselves as such. There are wild variations of party affiliation reported in Gallup’s methodology as the people that answer the phones declare themselves one party or the other.
There is no agenda. There is no bias. The calls are random. They do not include cellphones. This can matter.
Rasmussen did. Obambi is leading by only about 3.8% among likely voters. 3.8% after the Barackopolis speech...that is a dead-cat bounce if I ever saw one
“1st, a Democrat needs to have a lead of 10 percent or more in the Gallup poll to have any chance of winning.”
Neither Carter nor Clinton had a convention bounce of 10 points in the gallup registered voter poll.
“...and 3rd, if you look at the internals of this poll Barry’s lead is produced by leads in the West and the East, area’s where he is already electorally leading; 4th, the internals show that his leads in those regions has stayed roughly the same, they simply reweighed the numbers to give him a bounce.”
Link please.
I disagree, but we’ll see, won’t we?
“They do not include cellphones.”
Gallup does a subset using cell phones. Rasmussen does not. Since Ras uses IVR technology, he is prohibited by law from calling cell phones.
The would make the race dead even. IIRC, during the primaries there was always a discrepancy of about 4 pts in Obama's favor from the actual results. IOW, some folks just don't want to say they aren't voting for him.
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