Posted on 08/30/2008 10:27:50 AM PDT by flyfree
PRINCETON, NJ -- Barack Obama maintains an eight percentage point lead over John McCain when registered voters nationwide are asked whom they would vote for in the presidential election if it were held today, according to the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking figures.
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The current results are based on Aug. 27-29 interviewing, which includes two nights of polling during the convention and one post-convention night on Friday. The Friday interviewing was conducted in an unusual political environment -- the first conducted fully after Obama's well-regarded acceptance speech and McCain's surprise announcement of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his vice presidential running mate. Each event in isolation has usually been associated with increased candidate support for the relevant party. On this day -- with strong partisan forces pushing the public in both directions -- Obama still polled better than he had been prior to the convention, but not as well as he was polling on the individual nights of the convention.
(Excerpt) Read more at gallup.com ...
I say vote who you want to vote for. But if you act like like a lunatic, that ain’t cool. God bless you. You’re in the heart of obamanation, so stay upbeat.
Problem I see is McCain has almost never had any lead. Also we may not get a real convention with the hurricaine. Tough election with a media that is no longer even pretending their bias.
Thanks for putting it in perspective and make me think about the polls. Iwas thinking these were 1 day averages but since they are 3 days, once Obama’s couple of big day #’s roll off, John McCain will be real close to Obama again... i hope... from what you’re saying pheeww....
They have been working on this a long time and it is really a worry. Turnout and probably 3-4% fraud will make it very tough to win this year. JMO
The big test is can McCain open up a decent lead by the end of next week. If he can, I love his chances. If not, we've got our work cut out for us.
The problem biggest problem is McCain’s ceiling. In the Gallup poll, I’m fairly certain he’s only cross the 45% barrier once and most of the time hes sitting around 43-44%. Conversely, Obama has consistently been in the mid to high 40’s since June. The difference is irrelevant, and you can chalk it up to the kind of background noise that affects a campaign in the short-term, but does nothing in the long-term.
The fact of the matter is that unless McCain can significantly improve his polling numbers to get them into the high 40’s, much like Bush did in August of 04...its going to be tough sledding.
Dukakis was up 55% to 38% according to Gallup after the 1988 Democrat convention.
I’m not worried, but neither am I overconfident. It’s a very tight race. All it takes are a few gaffes on either side to cement this one way or another, although I do not think it can or will be a “landslide” no matter what happens. Large pockets of the country-—Texas, the south vs. the Coasts-—are too entrenched in their way of thinking to flip.
If you take a look at who the remaining undecideds are, they are blue collar whites for the most part. Obama has had a terrible time trying to win them over.
His convention was designed to do that. The current Gallup numbers suggest that as of this moment, he has won many of them over, but it is interesting, most of them report being won over after the Clinton speeches, and not the Obama ones.
If this bounce for Obama persists, it indicates he has sealed the deal with those blue collar whites and will win in November.
If the gap closes again, it means they are not fully convinced, and the race will fall back into a tie.
Yes, the RATs appear to have a better ground game in place than we do, but if there is any Bradley Effect at all, it helps negate that. Also, if voters are truly undecided at the last minute, that probably helps McCain as well because he will be seen as the "safer" choice by most.
If I could choose today which hand I would want to play, I would pick Obama's, but I would also realize McCain still has a lot of cards in his deck that could wind up beating me. This thing is far, far from over.
Perot never had a lead, not even close
I thought he lead when he first announced. Was leading until he dropped out. When he re-entered the race his poll numbers were back down.
According to wiki In june 1992 he was up by 8 over Bush, 14 over clinton.
I was pretty sure he didn’t, but could be wrong. If so, apologies
Remember that the debates are usually the deciding factor.
I remember when Gore held a double digit lead over Bush, being an incumbent VP and 8 years of experience in Washington in the Executive branch, Bush was a decided underdog before the first debate began.
Another political fact is, that the underdog usually wins the first debate. It’s not a bad thing that McCain is a 4 or 5 point underdog, when a 12% underdog like Bush won and came out even after the debates. Then, Bush took a 4 point lead in honest polls and won. Remember how McCain mopped the floor with Obama in a recent one-on-one debate?
Obama should be way ahead at this early stage, especially having been fresh out of the biggest media bash/blitz in American media election history. But when the idiot takes the stage, he blows it. The more exposure he gets, the better.
Gallup is also at least 5 points in favor the the Democrats, and always has been. They truly believe their polls shape public opinion. It’s obvious.
Sun Aug 24: 45 - 45
Mon Aug 25: 45 - 45
Tue Aug 26: 46 - 44 McCain
Wed Aug 27: 47 - 44 Obama
Thu Aug 28: 54 - 36 Obama
Fri Aug 29: 47 - 42 Obama
Sat Aug 30: 47 - 44 Obama
If these numbers are correct, it looks like Hillary! was the one who really moved the numbers in the convention, but then the bounce started to fade away almost immediately.
It’s not a big deal brother. Wikipedia is wrong a lot too. I just didn’t feel like doing to research myself. I’m lazy like a liberal journalist.
You know, if we all started making up poll numbers, and called ourselves the institute for liberal justice, we’d might get them posted on CNN. Of course we’d have to say it’s Obama by 6 points over McCain.
I am sure the numbers I have above are not 100% correct, but I am very confident that they are close to the raw numbers Gallup has generated. Another possibility is that Gallup just got a really bad sample one night (it does happen) that artificially inflated the bounce.
If you take that one night out, then Gallup's daily numbers mirror Rasmussen's very closely.
Well, I’ll be interested to see what happens after Palin gives her speech. I’ve got to believe that folks will tune in to see what she’s all about. And this might lead to a big boost in the polls for the ticket.
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