[Owen]

Well, the Rasmussen 4% lead isn’t significant for its value. The significance is the trend or change.

There was none.

Now, Palin may have trampled on Obama’s speech uptick, and she may have erased some very strong day a few nights earlier in the sampling (probably the Hillary speech night), but if there was a miracle it would have shown last night.

We will watch the trends and see what is what in days upcoming. I am loathe to declare a 4% Rasmussen lead as “No Bounce” because Rasmussen’s methodology compresses everything.

[puroresu]

There's never been a VP pick who was a “miracle”. Most VP picks don't even bring in their home state if it isn't in the party's pocket already. Instead, VP picks can help a bit if they rally the base, get people to start paying attention to the ticket, and prompt party members to open their wallets and contribute. That's where Palin will be a success. She won't send McCain's poll numbers through the roof, and certainly not enough to cause a compressed tracking poll to change in a single night. But she will help the ticket in the long run.

BTW, Rasmussen's four point Obama lead now includes polling from the three best nights the ‘Rats will likely have. Hillary's speech, Bill's speech, and Obama’s speech. Those three nights produced a “miracle” of four points collectively.