The pipeline in Georgia, now shut down, means the Russians control more oil than they did a short time back. If Europe decides not to purchase supplies from the Russians, then the supply chain will shift, despite fungibility, and we will see higher prices.
Keep in mind the Russians and Chinese have been expanding their control--direct and otherwise--over oil supplies through actions like the one in Georgia, and influence like that in Venezuela and Iran.
Production is also declining in Mexico, one of our major suppliers.
All in all, with Russian saber rattling and military action, the situation has changed, and could change more to our detriment.
This will cause some tension in the oil markets, based on geopolitical concerns.
Just to keep everyone up to date, it has been restarted.
Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline back to normal operations, BP says
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2067439/posts
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