I'm very, very familiar with "the source". This is crap! Ignorant people betting foolishly.
Maybe so, but in the past it's been a very good indicator of the outcome of US elections.
This far out, the absolute numbers aren't that important. The interesting information is in the trend -- i.e. how it's shifting from one outcome to the other. And as the original poster points out, it is definitely trending in favor of McCain.