Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
AIRLINE ANOMALIES
Summary
A number of strange events — each in and of itself unremarkable — have followed the crash of Spanair flight JK5022 on Aug. 20. Though we do not attempt to draw any conclusions from these string of events, the anomalous nature of these incidents is noteworthy.
Analysis
A number of aviation incidents around the world over the weekend have piqued our attention, though at this point no conclusions can be drawn from the available information.
It seems to have begun with the Aug. 20 crash of Spanair flight JK5022. Heading toward the Canary Islands, the flight originated from Spain’s busiest airport, Barajas Airport, located in Madrid. The first attempt at takeoff was aborted and a technical problem kept the plane on the ground for some two additional hours. On its second attempt, the MD-82 reportedly experienced an explosion or a fire of some sort (likely with one of its engines) during its takeoff run at around 2:45 p.m. local time. Though reports suggest the aircraft did get airborne, it soon slammed into the ground and ended up in a gully near the runway. More than 150 people — including the vast majority of passengers and crew — were killed.
While an investigation is currently underway, the MD-80 series (which includes the MD-82) is a widely used and well regarded aircraft with a fairly good safety record. Both Spanish and American investigators are involved in the investigation process.
Though the crash is obviously tragic, it did not seem connected to some larger issue regarding global civil aviation even though less than two weeks prior, a South Korean man made a bomb threat against an Air China flight from Japan only hours before the opening ceremonies of the 2008 Olympics began in Beijing. The man has already confessed and is currently in custody.
Regardless of whether they are — or are not — connected, a number of incidents over the weekend have caught our attention:
Aug. 23 — Swiss International Airlines flight LX2114 was diverted to Geneva while en route from Zurich to Malaga after a bomb threat. No explosives were found aboard.
Aug. 23 — Virgin Atlantic flight VS029, a Boeing 747, returned to Gatwick only an hour after departing for Barbados. The pilot reportedly took precautionary measures after a technical difficulty was encountered. Virgin has denied that any emergency occurred.
Aug. 24 — Spanair flight JK2565, another Spanair MD-82 also headed to the Canary Islands, was forced to land at Malaga when it encountered a technical problem in flight after leaving Barcelona.
Aug. 24 — An as yet unidentified Kyrgyz Boeing 737 heading for Tehran from Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan crashed as it was attempting to turn back to Manas International Airport after encountering a technical problem shortly after takeoff. The plane was reportedly owned by the Kyrgyz Itek Air but was being operated by Iran Aseman Airlines. Manas is also a military airbase used by U.S. forces. Though details remain cloudy at this point, as many as a third of the passengers may have survived.
In addition, Qantas Airways Ltd. experienced a number of odd incidents with its aircraft a week ago — from a rudder issue to an issue with toilets — since a decompression incident forced a Qantas 747 to make an emergency landing on July 25.
Of the incidents mentioned, the aircraft, airlines and geography (both origin and destination) involved are all too broad to delineate a pattern beyond the Europe-to-Caribbean flights. Passenger manifest information is currently too limited to suggest connections among possible targets. Though the overall fiscal crunch on airlines in the last few years has led to streamline attempts and maintenance cuts, we attempt to draw no conclusions there either.
But in intelligence it is essential to recognize anomalous events or series of events and even if this particular block of incidents is nothing more than an unfortunate (and in some cases tragic) five days for global civil aviation, it bears mention.
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Really... you really are trying to tell me all those incidents are connected somehow. A reason why those minor events have garners so much attention is because of the Spanair disaster. Bomb threats are infrequent, but somewhat common. A flight returning to an airport after takeoff, it happens every day. Trust me, if there was some kind of link someone important would see it. This is just conspiratorial garbage.
WOW! Good Intel! Keep it coming! ;)
Ping to post #15.