Oh, there’s no guarantee ANYONE flips a marginally blue state. If they were certain, they would not be blue.
The point is there is no one with more EV power in the delicate red or marginal blue states than Romney. That is simply the way it is.
It’s not ideology. It’s math. Bush won with 286 EVs. NM and Iowa appear to be lost. The polls are strongly for Obama. That is 12 EVs. We can’t lose another 5 or it is 269-269 and the House gives it to Obama. Nevada is 5. Colorado is 9. They are both vulnerable in recent polls. Romney can shore them up because there are large Mormon populations in both.
Michigan is about Virginia. Insurance.
And yes, some kind of effort to win PA would be great. Bush lost PA by about the same number of votes as Kerry lost Ohio. It should be thought of as in reach. But . . . can’t be Ridge, and I think he has already said he’s off the table.
I think Nevada will surprise. Polls show a dead heat, and Dingy Harry is dragging the ‘Rats down. My sister works in government alongside Rory Reid (Dingy’s son) and tells me that things are not certain at all for Obama in Nevada.