[LS]

I don’t know how ras is getting 273 for Obama: by Ras’s own polls, I have McCain at 274, unless he’s not counting VA.

[MattinNJ]

Ras has NV (5) OH (20) and Va (13) as tossups and doesn't give either candidate those EVs. Obama gets to 273 by switching CO (9), IA (7), and NM (5) from Red to Blue.

See Rassmussenreports.com balance of power calculator.

McCain will have to hold on to all of Dubya's 2004 states including NV, OH, and VA and take one of CO., IA, or NM back to Red, or switch a Kerry state like MN 11(Pawlenty) or MI 17(Romney).

If he takes NV, OH, VA, and NH (4), but loses CO, IA, and NM it winds up a 269-269 tie.

I think that leads us dangerously close to a bad situation that will make 2000 look like a walk in the park.