The first rule of politics the candidate that changes tactics is losing.
Obmaa changed from his “We can all just get along if you worship me!” plan, becuase he was 23 points behind with independents.
Initiially the media was surveying 27 percent Repubilcnas, 34 percent Democrats and 39 percent independents. That is until McCain started to take a huge lead among independents. Then the pollsters changed the perctages to 39 percent Democrats, 30 percent Independents and 32 percent Republicans.
And the pollsters still can’t get Obama a lead.
The point is independents choose candidates on two factors. Likability and ‘What will the candidate do for me?”
Obama is losing the likability. Research for years has shown that independents vote for what they see as a nice guy or gal. Independents tend to go for a person they would invite over for coffee or to have a beer. That is not Obama. He does not appeal to indpendents on his personality.
The other factor is what the candidate will do for the independent voters. But Obama is all about those that will follow Obama to the promised land. Independents don’t vote that way.
So Obama has a huge problem with independents and white working class members of his own party.
So he tries another tact. He is now trying to drive McCain down with attacks. But that does not work. The independents LIKE MCCAIN. When Obama attacks McCain the independents who like him, defend him.
It is a strategy that almost never works.
The second rule of Politics is never attack a candidate the voters like.
I would bet the internal Democrat polls look terrible for Obama. He is now playing a big gambling offense and defense.
Candidates who are wining never gamble. Those that are losing are reduced to gambling for support. It almost never works.
The most important thing to remember is the candidate who is winning never needs to change positions or tactics.
McCain stopped changing well over a month ago. Obama has been changing nearly every day. It is hard times at the Obama camp. Things aren’t working out the way they hoped.
I think the Obama team is starting to see this slip away from them. They have a candidate with zero experience in a race of this magnitude, and he is making some big mistakes. He is panicking and they are panicking.
I still think we are looking at a very close election, but McCain has a better than 50/50 shot at pulling it out IMHO.
I would bet the internal Democrat polls look terrible for Obama.Is he desperate enough to gamble on picking Hillary as his VP?He is now playing a big gambling offense and defense.