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To: CutePuppy

I suppose the more ominous question is whether the Kremlin will look to further destabilization tactics internationally if the price of oil continues to decline in order to raise the price back up.


12 posted on 08/19/2008 3:14:32 AM PDT by afortiori
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To: afortiori
I am not sure how much they can really do, we seem to be on the case to prevent this elsewhere, and they are running out of "peacekeepers" excuse. Also, if they "succeed", like they did in Georgia, it may just exacerbate the slowdown trend and cause even more troubles at home. Putin can't help but see that the intended economic (as well as political) effect has not happened.

Dollar keeps going up and oil (correspondingly) and metals are going sharply down - oil is now below $112, despite seeming public Russian entrenchment and pipeline action in Georgia. It can't be good news for Putin. There is a message to him in that somewhere. Destroying Georgian infrastructure will only encourage and attract more foreign / sovereign investment there, once Russian "peacekeepers" have to withdraw. Dubai is already committed to huge expansion of the port there.

Russia now can't afford and is in danger of losing some deals elsewhere because of this adventure which is going to be far more costly than whatever they expected to gain. I would suspect the initial "shock value" of invasion has already been realized and it didn't do what was expected - a spike in prices, and everyone running with their "hair on fire" and asking czar Vladimir what can we do for him to make it go away. Instead he got a public scolding verbally and in action (Poland, Ukraine, even Germany) and no spike... It's not going according to plan, that's gotta hurt and give a serious pause. He makes mistakes, but he is not irrational. "The best laid plans of mice and men"?

14 posted on 08/19/2008 3:49:30 AM PDT by CutePuppy (If you don't ask the right questions you may not get the right answers)
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