Georgia: [Ukraine] blockade threat risks escalating conflict

The Times ^ | 8/14/2008 | Tony Halpin

[DB]

Putin doesn’t have an empire to rule if he goes nuclear. He’s not suicidal - like Iran.

[Ramzi Al Kaboom]

After all the activity I’ve seen recently about how careful we must be because Ivan has nukes....well so do we...and lest we forget MAD worked...and continues to work..the Russians will not use them and neither will we for the same reasons.

Unlike our “other” enemies, Ivan has a readily accessible “return address”. They know this, and we as well have an “address”. Again MAD works..now of course it DOES rely on both sides being unwilling to commit suicide, We aren’t and as odd as his behavior has been of late...I don’t think our “friends” are ready either.

[rjp2005]

Nice assumption. I don’t recall suggesting the Ukraine suddenly mothball it’s substantial military.

[SampleMan]

Hitler did not have thousands of nuclear weapons, and the capability to deliver them to any locale in the USA. Not that I don’t want action, but a certain measure of discretion must be applied.

Funny how the Russians don't share your fear when it comes to our nuclear weapons. How is that?

The Russians are in no great position to do anything if we kick them out of the G-8, WTO, etc., place Ukraine in NATO tomorrow and handover a few thousand Stingers and Javelin missiles to the Georgians. What are they going to do, stick their thumb in our eye at the UN?

This is called hardball, and they aren't going to launch nukes at us over Georgia.

Here's a little secret for you, the Russians think your line of reasoning constitutes weakness and weakness must be exploited with further prodding.

[knyteflyte3]

Riiight. So we can start WWIII by Friday? I don’t think so. Cool heads please.

knock knock, hello, tell the russians that, they started all of this......

[kc8ukw]

And Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland are NATO members. If Russia attacks one of them, by virtue of the alliance, we will have a huge war on our hand, right? At least with European help.

[SampleMan]

Russia today is not comparable to Germany back then.

Go read up on the Sudetenland and then say that again.

[UCFRoadWarrior]

The real lowdown on the Georgia situation.....

If the US does not act now, and yes militarily in some form (at least supporting Georgia with weapons)....Russia will go after another former satellite. If they get away with Georgia...someone else will be next

The Liberal-Globalist diplomacy track isnt going to cut it. The Russians know diplomacy is code for inaction.

It will get ugly if Russia is allowed to win in Georgia...and then decides to go after a Baltic state later. Then, there will be no choice but to send in US military forces

[AmericanInTokyo]

ooh this is going to get interesting

[Xenophon450]

Giving them armaments isn’t quite what I had in mind. I was thinking of open engagement, as proposed on some other threads.

[piytar]

If Russia goes into Ukraine, WWIII is already on. Better to start it from a position of strength and maybe back the Bear down.

[rjp2005]

One step at a time.

Subsidiarity. Let the Ukrainians make their first step (port restrictions). If Russia moves pieces in response, then we move pieces.

[knyteflyte3]

If Russia moves pieces in response, then we move pieces.

Agreed, although I think we should start putting pieces in Georgia and soon.

[rjp2005]

Where is Turkey in all of this btw? Are they so tied to Russian gas they can’t call the Geogian President and ask if he needs some helicopters and additional protection troops brought in?

[melt]

[knyteflyte3]

Good question, I think the Turks are probably in a position, (especially as a NATO country) that they do not want to “complicate” things any further. Just a hunch...

[bruinbirdman]

"Sea Breeze 2008 (July 16), a NATO military exercise, began on Monday in Ukraine’s Odessa, Crimea and Black Sea coastal regions. Two years ago, the Sea Breeze 2006 exercise in the Crimea was disrupted by protests."

So NATO has been rattling sabres in the area for a while.

Putin waits for 2008 NATO and Wannabies Black Sea Cold War Exercise to finish and decides to test NATO for real starting in Georgia.

Curiouser and curiouser.

yitbos

[oneolcop]

Right! As Stalin used to say: “Probe! Probe! Probe! Until you hit steel.

[DTogo]

The Georgians should take a page from the Fedayeen play book and start up a guerilla war: IEDs, RPG attacks on the long BMP/tank/Katyusha columns, snipe the dismounting troops, etc.

[bruinbirdman]

They did that and Russia invaded.

yitbos