Posted on 08/13/2008 11:39:55 AM PDT by Ravnagora
The Russian invasion of Georgia has not changed the balance of power in Eurasia. It simply announced that the balance of power had already shifted. The United States has been absorbed in its wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as potential conflict with Iran and a destabilizing situation in Pakistan. It has no strategic ground forces in reserve and is in no position to intervene on the Russian periphery. This, as we have argued, has opened a window of opportunity for the Russians to reassert their influence in the former Soviet sphere. Moscow did not have to concern itself with the potential response of the United States or Europe; hence, the invasion did not shift the balance of power. The balance of power had already shifted, and it was up to the Russians when to make this public. They did that Aug. 8.
Let’s begin simply by reviewing the last few days.
(Excerpt) Read more at stratfor.com ...
It (The US) has no strategic ground forces in reserve and is in no position to intervene on the Russian periphery.
That is why we need to reinstitute the draft and double the military budget. If we don’t, America will no longer be a world power.
I think Stratfor’s analysis was made obsolete this morning by Bush sending military “humanitarian” forces into Georgia.
They (Stratfor) didn’t see that coming.
Bingo.... But you could never even sell our side of the house on that..
I think one thing that needs to happen is that the pansies in Europe need to start carrying their own weight. EU wants to do this and that, fine. How about an EU military force to protect it’s own.
The author is quite right, our involvement in Iraq has left us toothless elsewhere and the Russians have just demonstrated that to Eastern Europe but also to the nations in the Middle East who flirt with terrorists. As the author said: While the United States is tied down in the Middle East, American guarantees have no value.
On the diplomatic front, it is feckless to rely on the Europeans for anything more than double crossing. But in this game the other side has nuclear weapons and now oil and gas upon which whole sections of Europe, including myself here Germany along with my neighbors, are utterly dependent. Worse, much of Europe welcomes the humiliation of America and would love nothing better than to see it so long as it can stand aside.
Domestically, America is at best riven in twain by a leftist, defeatist mentality and it appears to me that the nation is about to lurch even farther to the left in November. It will be as impossible to enlist blue state America in principled resistance to Russian aggression as it will be to get any meaningful cooperation in Europe. If Obama wins as I suspect and fear, there will be no attempt whatsoever.
As to the authors allegations of intelligence breakdown leading up to the Georgian attack, I am not competent nor knowledgeable enough to comment. But I am not sure that that is strictly relevant to the dilemma we face outlined above.
I would dearly like to know just how effective the Russian military really is right now. I understand that they have had petrodollars to lavish on their military, nevertheless, my guess is that what stratofor describes in Georgia is the cream skimmed from the top of the Russian military and the rest is probably still a shambles. I hope some knowledgeable Freepers like MNjonnie can comment because we really ought to know what we're talking about before we play geopolitical chess.
They looked like an udisciplined mob, the red army that is. Pretty war crimes ready to happen.
Doubling the military budget is a very good idea, but reinstating the draft isn’t. Take very good care of the military, active and retired, and the ranks will take care of themselves.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2061195/posts?page=20#20
A good analysis of a somewhat larger view on events which interestingly enough, closely parallels what I wrote yesterday...
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2059426/posts?page=55#55
Our moves will be slow to come, some will not be seen, but Putin will figure out that he does not like it. He is playing hotrod today but he is pushing folks to the West that until now might have been just indifferent to Russia.
You want to throw a a bunch of losers and f#$%wits into uniform and put them out there. The kind of twits you can see every day on Democratic Underground. Do you seriously expect those pieces of human debris to be watching out for anybody except number one?
You first might ask the men and women already in uniform if they want any of those losers watching their collective backs.
Most of the wars America has won were won with draftees. It was draftees who invaded Europe on D-Day. I think begining in 1944 during WWII men were no longer allowed to volunteer for the military, they were all draftees. Don’t knock draftees, they won you your freedom.
2) American society is vastly different today than it was in the 1940’s. You didn't have the left-wing losers then that you have today.
3) I repeat, ask the men and women serving today if they want people watching their back who do not want to be there, and quite possibly would not have any inhibitions about getting their betters killed by their actions or inactions.
There's a reason the Democrats want a new draft, it is certainly not to improve the quality of the armed forces. If your goal is to dilute the quality of the American fighting man and to really increase the number of casualties, by all means re-institute the draft.
I disagree. In the world of today, where the US faces many simultaneous crises, a much larger military is needed if our actions are to be more than merely diplomatic protests without the backing of military force. If you don’t want leftists in the military, then they can be screened out as disloyal.
The draft is needed, and I hope McCain will implement it. Though I don’t expect him to include a revival of selective service as part of the Republican platform.
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