Tbilisi would be a real surprise. That will be expensive for the Russians to take in terms of men and definitely in world opinion. Quite costly.
I agree. The Russian military is now just a shadow of the force that had its hat handed to it in Afghanistan. Georgia has a large contingent of American trained troops amassed in Tbilisi. You can bet the US is helping clandestinely with logistics and intelligence.
Here's an excerpt from an article on frontpagemag.com, today: Link below:
http://www.frontpagemag.com/Articles/Read.aspx?GUID=B248CCA5-26E4-477A-AEC5-18DB27B9CA95
But before we get wobbly in the knees, it would be wise to review the current state of Russia’s military to see how formidable our opponent actually is. At 1.13 million strong, the Russian army may be formidable in size, but the quality of its personnel leaves much to be desired. Made up largely of teenage conscripts drafted for one-year compulsory service, most show little commitment to their mission. Given the dire conditions they are forced to endure this is no surprise. Poorly equipped and supplied, many fall ill from a lack of proper care and nutrition. That frostbite is a common scourge in wintertime shows just how inadequately clothed and outfitted the Russian army is. It is hard to believe that only this year the transition was made to regular socks. Up until now, Russian soldiers wore the kind of foot wraps in use since the Napoleonic wars. The conduct of these beleaguered conscripts tends to be rowdy and unruly. Hazing of younger soldiers is a persistent problem with hundreds dying each year as a result. Those who think that Abu Ghraib represents the apotheosis of ruthless chicanery have not seen what goes on in the barracks of the Russian military. The morale of officers is hardly better.....
It would not be wise for the Big Bear to move on Georgia's capital city, sure, they can defeat the Georgians with sheer numbers, but at what cost, and, CAN THEY HOLD IT. It will be worse than the first years of the Iraq war were for the US, because these people are HAPPY with their leaders, and will never stop fighting the Russians. Talk about a QUAGMIRE.
Other former SSR's may come into the fray, and that will not be good for the possibilities of Russian reunification, their ultimate goal here. Just my opinion.