Russia leaves open chance of further strikes into Georgia

The Telegraph ^ | 8/13/2008 | Thomas Harding, defence correspondent, and Adrian Blomfield in Gori

[bruinbirdman]

Russian president may have halted operations, but Russia could still 'defend' itself against Georgian armed resistance.

While Russian President Dimitry Medvedev might have called a halt to operations he deliberately left open the possibility of combat by allowing his forces to "defend themselves" from Georgian armed resistance.

In characteristically blunt style, Russia also used a show of military force to warn Georgia against taking strategic advantage of Moscow's decision to end hostilities. Within an hour of the order to halt action, the Daily Telegraph witnessed Russian helicopter gunships launch missile strikes deep inside undisputed Georgian territory.

The attacks, which were officially denied in Moscow, may have been intended to dissuade Georgian troops from regrouping near the border of South Ossetia after their chaotic retreat on Monday evening.

In one assault, three attack helicopters swooped through a valley 25 miles south of the capital city Tbilisi. Hovering above a ridge, they fired nine rockets before disappearing into the distance, their rotors beating rhythmically.

Georgia's foreign ministry said that two villages had come under attack, but the claim could not be independently verified.

The attacks underlined that Russia had total control of South Ossetia just five days after invading to support the Moscow-backed rebels that have held the secessionist region since 1992. It is possible that the Russians will continue to attack Georgian military hardware over the coming days to ensure its armed forces are irreversibly weakened.

Any tanks, artillery, aircraft or armoured vehicles caught in the open will be eliminated as the Russians attempt to wear down Georgia's future military capability.

Scores of the country's 128 T72 tanks, 139 armoured personnel carriers and 95 artillery pieces have been destroyed. In addition, probably all seven of Georgia's Frogfoot aircraft have already been lost along with military training facilities. . . .

[yldstrk]

evil empire

[arkady_renko]

Sometimes the monsters from our youth really were monsters.

And to think, Obama's mentor Frank loved the communists. Does Barry, too?

[BusterBear]

Obama's mentor Frank loved the communists. Does Barry, too?

Well, the communists love him. The Communist Party USA has just written a glowing editorial about him.

[arkady_renko]

Well, he'll have to throw them under the bus if there is a stink about it, if not, he'll make them sit in the back on the way to the polls.

[Jeff Head]

We need to get this fighting over with and then get our advisors and equipment on the ground there, and then get Georgia into NATO.

Then all of that antiquated T-72 and BMP-1 stuff can be replaced by new, state of the art equipment.

Note however how Russia is intent on keeping their military and control of the two provinces. When you look at a map, the reason is clear. The Caucuss Mountains form an almost inpenetrable barrier between Georgia and Russia. They have a big highway tunnel through those Mountains that exits in the one province, a mere hundred miles from the Georgian capitol.

We saw what effect that can have this last week. An armored column emerged pointed like a dagger at Georgia's heart.

The other one borders the Sea and gives Russia an uncontested amphibious option of getting into the country too and cutting off Georgia's access to the sea. The Russians used both to slice and dice the nation...and, short of a huge increase in capabnility for the Georgians, if the Russians maintain control in those tow areas, they will be able to try it again.

Georgia needs to acquire the military hardware to allow them to destroy that tunnel if need be, and to contest amphibious operations...but that is down the road.

All of that aside, the direct talk by BUsh and McCain, the couragous flight into Georgia and the solidatrity that the Presidents of Poland, LAtvia, Ukraine, and Lithuania showed by going into that combat zone and then staying at the Georgian Presidents side when it appeared clear that the Russians were targeting him...and then the activitries of the French President all have made a difference here.

Let's pray it holds and, like I said, then the rebuiling of Georgian infrastructure and military can begin.

It may well be that Russia has ensured the future much increased strength and protection, by treaty of this couragous ally of ours.

[bruinbirdman]

Does Georgia in NATO include the two provences?

yitbos

[justa-hairyape]

That Russian armor is not going home anytime soon. They have a foothold into Georgia. My guess is that if Russia’s ally, Iran, comes under attack and needs to be bailed out in a hurry, that Russian Armor will continue on toward Armenia. Followed by lots of reinforcements. It is interesting that a simple look at a Russian territory map demonstrates just how important keeping a land route to the Caucasus has been to Russia.

[MarMema]

Mart Laar wrote this on April 18, 2008.

The Estonian member of parliament, writing in the Financial Times, sees echoes of the 1930s in Russia’s ongoing annexation of the Georgian territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia -

The west must shake off its torpor, condemn Mr Putin's gambit and support the Georgian proposals. Ignoring Moscow's Soviet-style land-grab would intensify strife in the south Caucasus.

"According to Mr Putin’s “instruction”, Russia will open “representations” in the two territories to protect the interests of Russian citizens there and to foster co-operation. Russia will claim that it has many citizens to protect in the two Georgian territories, after it illegally distributed its passports to anyone remaining after the civil wars and ethnic cleansing of the 1990s.

“Those who cannot learn from history,” said George Santayana, the Spanish philosopher, “are doomed to repeat it.” In 1937, Hitler agitated for the rights of the Sudeten Germans in Czechoslovakia; in 1938, he annexed Sudetenland into the Reich, purging it of non-Germans. In Abkhazia, most Georgians, Armenians, Estonians, Greeks and Russians - perhaps 500,000 in all - are already gone. Russia recognises Georgia’s international boundaries, but its actions belie its words.

Russia’s “representations” will be less than official consulates, although consular services will be offered from offices in neighbouring bits of Russia. “Representation” is a euphemism to soothe western fears that Moscow may recognise the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia in tit-for-tat retaliation for western recognition of Kosovo. However, in Moscow’s insidious gambit, the “representations” will be among the final steps toward annexation of the two Georgian territories.

[MarMema]

The Armenians quake and shiver before the Russians and would probably dance ahead dropping rose petals.

[MarMema]

Excellent question.

[MarMema]

You know why Russia wants Abkhazia and South Ossetia so desperately? Because it gives them two important borders on Georgia as the Georgians go west.

[MarMema]

Frozen conflicts 2: Handling Moscow: Tips from Estonia for Georgia and Moldova

This man rocks and he likes the Georgians.

[Lijahsbubbe]

We need to get this fighting over with and then get our advisors and equipment on the ground there, and then get Georgia into NATO

Except I'm sure that Russia has already visited that scenario.

[Lijahsbubbe]

For those who don't know, Azerbaijan is the next little country on the way to Iran. And there are disputed/occupied territories there as well that Russia will be looking at.

[goldstategop]

With Abkhazia, Russia has acquired a port on the Black Sea under its control and doesn't need to rely on Ukraine's permission as to what to do with its Black Sea fleet. That's a considerable strategic prize and from the Kremlin's point of view, its even more important than South Ossetia.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

[bereanway]

It is possible that the Russians will continue to attack Georgian military hardware over the coming days to ensure its armed forces are irreversibly weakened.”

Based upon the way things sound you really don’t have a cease fire. If you continue to target military hardware and infrastructure then it’s simply a unilateral cease fire. Somehow I just don’t think Russia is done, they’re going to continue to harass the Georgians and when they respond in kind all H*!! is going to break loose again.

That they attacked Poti would indicate they’re attempting to inflict real economic pain and if they don’t swing back into a full fledged assault they’re going to attempt to wear Georgia down in a more indirect fashion. Logistically they’ve accomplished a great deal, but given some of the targets they hit which weren’t necessary from a military viewpoint there appears to be more mischief to come.

[justa-hairyape]

There is a Russian military base in Armenia. And obviously the Armenians are better aligned with the Russians then the Turks. Is there a good road system to get into Iran just from Armenia proper ? Of course tanks do not need roads, but there is a short border between Iran and Armenia proper.

Its strange but if you step back and look at the big map of Asia, a unified land territory from Russia to Iran would be one powerful chunk of land.

[justa-hairyape]

With Abkhazia, Russia has acquired a port on the Black Sea under its control and doesn't need to rely on Ukraine's permission as to what to do with its Black Sea fleet. That's a considerable strategic prize and from the Kremlin's point of view, its even more important than South Ossetia.

Apparently the Russians first tried to stir up the pot in Abkhazia and when the Georgians did not take that bait, they stirred the pot in Ossetia. To power project on land through the Caucasus, the Russians need the tunnel in Ossetia and a Port on the Black Sea. On the Caspian Sea they have a direct water pathway to Iran. Also, attacking Azerbaijan could bring the Turks into the fight.

[Lijahsbubbe]

Its strange but if you step back and look at the big map of Asia, a unified land territory from Russia to Iran would be one powerful chunk of land

Wouldn't it be though? It's fascinating when you do some reading about the area.From the same website as the map:

Russia's attack this week now means that Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, up for reelection in October, will need to seek guarantees from Moscow that it will not now support Armenia's claims in Karabakh or in Azerbaijan's other territories that are internationally recognized as occupied. Recapturing all of these lands is Azerbaijan's ultimate aim, and who knows what Aliyev might be willing to offer Moscow to grant him this.

http://www.middleeastinfo.org/news.php?nl=az