There are three primary MSRs thru the caucasus.
The Caspian Sea coast, the Black Sea coast, and the Ossetia passes.
This is about Russia wanting to split the region from NATO.
They are pushing in Ossetia and look like they are on the Black Sea coast as well.
With Georgia split and fighting on two fronts, it falls, that puts Russia in position to do the same to Azerbaijan.
Two axis’ of attack.
Armenia is mopup.
Regain the caucuses and isolate the central Asian Republics from western support.
This is not about Georgia. This is about eight of the former soviet republics being taken or isolated from NATO so that Russia can take over at will. Eight of the 19 countries the Soviet Union lost to the breakup.
Belorusa is already defacto part of Russia. It never really was independent. (I do not count it in the 19.)
That means that Ukraine and Moldova will be the next targets after this operation completes.
This is about the Russian Empire regaining lost territories...
Exactly. Georgia is the keystone, no bases in Georgia, no NATO.
Meanwhile no part of oil shipment control for the west.
The smaller states will be unable to ally with the west, putting them under Russian control without being part of an obvious empire.
Ukraine will be more difficult
Putin has called the fall of USSR a disaster and wants to reassemble the control of empire but not the appearance of it. He will be like a ghost in control if NATO is stymied.