Bush is going to be leaving soon, so why would the Russians prefer to strengthen the election case for McCain by becoming belligerent when they could wait a few more months and see if Obama is elected? They surely know that Obama would be much weaker regarding American foreign policy than McCain, right?
Maybe the Russians are doing their own American election polling and are finding out that Obama doesn't stand a chance, so they figure they better do it now before the Vietnam vet/POW gets elected?
That all might be a stretch, but still, if I'm the Russians, I wait to see if Obama gets elected, then it's party time. Doing what they're doing now is only helping the case for electing McCain, which wouldn't seem to be in the best interests of Russian hardliner old school communists.
Putin sees America as having a lame duck president who wants to go out quietly and with a congress that won’t do anything provacative. In Putin’s mind, the timing is perfect to do this.
Sound analysis to me. Gives Russia about 9 to 12 months.
Russia has its own problems with Islamic Jihad. Remember the theatre bombing?