There is not a single blue state, with the possible exception of Michigan, where we have a prayer of taking an electoral vote away from Obama. Michigan, Pennsylvania, Oregon and New Hampshire are all close and were all states won by Kerry last time around. I'd say we at least have a "prayer" in all of them even though we aren't favored to win any of them.
I'll agree with you that Obama should be the favorite right now. He has a lot of structural issues working in his favor. McCain is hanging in right there with him though and there is still a long, long way to go.
I don't think we have any "prayer" in any one of these states providing the election proceeds according to the normal and predictable course of events. These states will tend like iron filings to be drawn to their polls. That is why I am so bitterly disappointed and frustrated by Lindsey Graham and his handling of the energy opportunity. George Bush has done no better on the issue and I even wonder if it is truly a matter of concern to him which party takes office after he leaves. I get the impression that John McCain doesn't want the office unless he can say, "I did it my way."
Incidentally and inspired by your nom de plume, I wish Newt had come back, at least in an organizational role, if not on McCain's behalf, then at least on behalf of the Republicans in the House and Senate. We need someone somewhere to nationalize this election. In another thread, Gallup says that the Congress is down to 31% approval, and any yet another thread it says 9% approval. The House and Senate races are just begging to be nationalized and if we don't do it the Democrats certainly will and they will sail to a wholesale victory where the slaughter will be painful to contemplate.
It seems to me, that nearly everyone sees the disaster coming for senators and congressmen, so it requires a stretch to believe that McCain can reverse the numbers at the top of the ticket in this climate.
