Equally critical for Ruissian units to either prevent counter attack, or extend their own offensive. Watch that town...if the Russians move to take it, then there is a high liklihood (IMHO) that they are going to extend their offensive beyond Ossetia.
I have read and heard reports that as many as 10-15 Russian aircraft have been downed and seen bloody pictures of dead Russian pilots.
I believe the Georgian anti-air will be effective against the close support the Russians will be doing, but also believe that they do not have a large enough Air force to press an air attack against the tunnel...though if they were going to try and use their air force, that would be a critical thing to use it for.
With the numbers supporting the different sides, the timing of prepositioned forces, and the waiting for US forces to depart, it appears to be a convoluted picture.
Strategically, this IMHO, isn’t good for the US (unless we’ve been forming it all along).
US political interests are obviously to favor Georgia over Russia.
The political persuasion of aggressors in Georgia, the separatists, are closer to terror based revolutionary groups we are fighting in SoAsia. They also are akin in political style to act as allies, emmissaries or puppets of Russia, although the Islamic leanings may be uncertain.
If the conflict broadens, there is incentive for all the Islamic states to begin to shape future, very long lasting formative structures.
US is strapped economically, has interests in the region and recognizes the strategic parties and alliances being formed, is likely to promote an an Islamic regional grouping to counter a Russian advance.
Russia is likely to support a counter pro US Islamic groupings, as well as advance revolutionary terrorist elements within the Islamic nations keeping in the traditions of socialist political science, while maneuvering to procure options for more warm water ports to the south.
The oil pipelines, IMHO, are merely temporary, highly visible exploits, which IMHO, though valuable economically, have far more valuable propaganda resources to provide plausible deniability of the conflict’s ulterior motives.
If Obama gets elected, count on the SoAsian region becoming much more Islamic and permanently controlled by independent Islamic concers, with future worldwide goals of religious domination.
If McCain gets elects, it isn’t as certain.
The Conspiracy theorists who suggest this is all about oil, have one thing right. Oil is involved and the major issues are not as obvious as they publicly may appear, but IMHO, the game has been forming for at least 12 years and our forrays into Iraq and Afghanistan have merely placed us in a better position of strength on the ground, than simply being a third party observer.
IMHO, The far ranging consequences of the Georgian conflict may reveal more about how well planned our State Dept has been, our Intel operations have been, as well as possibly revealing lack of insight.
If the US wants to get involved, but lacks resources, it naturally will favor the promotion of Iraqi, Turkish, and So Georgian forces into an alliance, while Russians would naturally support insurgent movements, Iranian, Syrian coalitions.
Albeit all of these would be tenacious and convoluted at best, the USSR couldn’t control such alliances when Georgia was part of the USSR with more centralized command and control.
If the US becomes isolationist, there remains a pro-Islamic bent in the region becoming more anti-US than ally, with possible Russian-Iranian domination in the region, then China possibly feeling a bit more threatened.
Nevertheless, all of this tends to redirect SoAsia into a more heavily pro-Islamic grouping of states, than western models of democracy.
I agree with your assessment and parallels to Germany in the 30’s. Had Russia disapproved of activity, it could have been handles quite indirectly and covertly, with separatist controllers removed from power.