I do not share your belief that McCain would have a harder time beating Hillary.
It does not matter whether it is Obama or Clinton - or even Kucinich.
The only factors that matter are:
1) the approval rating of the incumbent president,
2) the economy’s economic growth rate, and
3) whether the president’s party has controlled the White House for two terms.
In other words, even the identity of the Republican candidate is almost irrelevant. John McCain might as well be John Republican.
The best (maybe only) chance McCain has is if George W. Bush’s approval rating and the economy improves.
The vast majority of the voters who will decide this election are not paying that much attention to all these details.
The most common thought process is this simple:
“I am worried about making a living. Naturally, I blame the guy at the top (because I really don’t know how it works). That guy’s party has been at the top for two terms and we generally don’t approve of what he is doing. I will vote for the guy from the other party.”
It really is that simple for most voters.
Appalling, but probably accurate.
I agree but for a different reason. If Hillary takes this nomination from Obama the black vote will be pissed as hell and will stay home. It will also hurt the elected congresscritters. That is why those congresscritters, who are also superdelegates, won't turn on Obama and give the nomination to Hillary.
I am headed out to my Pub to watch baseball but not before I made a copy of your #80. Most excellent points for discussion. I really have to think about your opinions there.