Value is the perceived balance of Supply and Demand
IOW, not actual supply and demand, but what appears to be the balance between S&D. That's why certain rumors tend to raise the price for a while. Also why Congress and the President TALKING about removing the government obstacles to domestic drilling helped to lower the price by 15% in a short period of time. Were there other factors? Yes, but . . .
No one actually knows exactly what day to day supply is. Nor demand. And there are, as you say, other factors. Rumors of war, famine, hurricanes, etc...etc.
FRegards,