Polls: McCain Competitive In MN, MI, CO

Sunny 102.3 FM / UPI ^ | July 28, 2008

[Darren McCarty]

In the last election, our idiot Canadian trash governor Granholm beat DeVos by a comfortable margin. A lot of democrats won house and senate seats.

I like Dick DeVos and think he's a good man. He also didn't have a chance to win. He has an aristocratic reputation and Michigan voters hate people who are perceived as aristocrats. They don't understand "the little guy."

That hurt both "oil man" Bush and John Kerry, who only won I think because of vote fraud, now corrected to some degree with ID to vote.

[Clemenza]

I see McCain winning Oakland County, and possibly Macomb as well. If he wins both narrowly, Barry O will likely win. If he wins one of two by double digits, the state is McCain’s.

[Darren McCarty]

All things being equal, he needs to make up about 150,000 voters out of 4-5 million total voters.

Oakland will be tough since a lot of the shift is due to increased black population. McCain will have to make up at least 50,000 votes to break even there based on Southfield, Pontiac, and Oak Park alone. It can be done, but he'll have to sweep the outer tier, make inroads in the Jewish areas, and hold the line in the big money areas where Bush lost a lot of ground in 04.

Macomb County will not vote for Obama. You can take that to the bank.

I also think "Downriver" is in play, as are Saginaw and Bay Counties (they would not be if Hillary is the nominee). Genesee County will go democrat, but I don't think it will by its normal number unless Flint goes 90% Democrat instead of 80%.

Obama has a bigger than normal advantage in the college towns, but I do not see how they go any further democrat than they did in 2004 with the anti-Bush vote.

[Clemenza]

I heard that there was a movement of black folk into southern Macomb county over the past few years. I agree that Macomb would go for McCain for the same reason that Delaware County, PA and Gloucester County, NJ will go for McCain, even though Hillary would have won all of these counties by a large margin.

[Darren McCarty]

There is some, mostly in Sterling Heights and Warren joining Mt Clemens and New Haven, but it's still not like Oakland County or to a lesser extent, suburban Wayne County (Redford, Taylor, Dearborn, Westland). Warren is about 10% black today. That's high for Warren, but not for a working class area bordering the City of Detroit. Southfield for comparison is now about 65% black, up from 56% in 10 years. Southfields neighbors of Redford Township (borders Detroit), Farmington Hills, Oak Park (borders Detroit), and to a slightly lesser extent based on costs, the Bloomfields are also increasing their black population rapidly. Livonia is the main exception.

I don't expect a 60% win in Macomb partly because of that, but 55% isn't out of the question. I think McCain takes Oakland with 51% right now with the shifting attitudes on drilling, but he can make up for that in other lunchbucket areas.

[SunkenCiv]

Luckily for everyone, it doesn’t matter if McCain loses to Obama. /sarc

The 2008 election is about the war — but not in the way the Demwits had hoped — and is about high fuel prices — for which the Demwits blame their wish to raise federal excise taxes on fuel. Their fortunes are in decline, but it will be a close election. Thanks 2ndDivisionVet.

Obama Maintains Narrow Lead In Michigan
(Obama 46% to McCain 42%, 9% Undecided)
AHN | July 24, 2008 | Kris Alingod
Posted on 07/27/2008 10:59:55 PM PDT by Red Steel
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2052350/posts

[RockinRight]

This might be the first election in a long time where the GOP takes PA, Minnesota, and Michigan, and the Dems take Virginia and Colorado.