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People say this all the time and I have yet to hear a logical explaination. If you want to say that the oil refineries are part of the problem, fine, but to argue oil and gas prices are not tightly related is a waste of time.

First and foremost the reason for high oil prices is the huge upfront investment to bring additional supplies online, be it in the form of oil from oil shale, coal to liquid or drilling the north pole. All these options are viable at oil prices of ~ $100. However, you will get burned as an investor if oil prices drop significantly below that price point - which could happen if e.g. the Saudis find another giant oil field (production costs there are mostly just a few bucks, so the Saudis will be fine even if prices stabilize at a lower level again. The same cannot be said for domestic production). So while the oil industry does explorations worldwide and additional supply comes online (e.g. off the cost of Angola), that does little more than offset the decline in production of existing oilfields.

For a large-scale investment in CTL and the creation of a shale oil industry the prices will have to remain high for an extended period of time. Either way, prices will probably stabilize (IMHO) around $95 or so, $150 is just not a sustainable level, personally I don't believe in $250 oil scenarios. That is with one exception: A full-scale Iran war will lead to widespread disruptions in the regions, in that case prices might explode.