Hurricane watch issued for Texas (Well Hello Dolly!)

Reuters on Yahoo ^ | 7/21/08 | Michael Christie,

[NormsRevenge]

MIAMI (Reuters) - A hurricane watch was issued for the southern portion of the Texas coast on Monday as Tropical Storm Dolly emerged from the Yucatan over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico and appeared likely to become a hurricane, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.

[NormsRevenge]

An image showing wind speed probabilities for Tropical Storm Dolly for the five days from July 21 through July 26, 2008. REUTERS/NOAA/Handout

[NormsRevenge]

NOAA

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

[NormsRevenge]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/211800.shtml

000
WTNT34 KNHC 211800
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
100 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2008

...DOLLY MOVING QUICKLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO MEXICO
NORTHWARD...ACROSS THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO AND THE UNITED
STATES...AND ALONG THE TEXAS COAST TO PORT O’CONNOR. A HURRICANE
WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM LA
PESCA NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO...AND FOR THE TEXAS
COAST FROM NORTH OF PORT O’CONNOR TO SAN LUIS PASS. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 100 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.4 WEST OR ABOUT 475
MILES...765 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE COAST OF THE LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY OF SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO.

DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE DIRECTION OF MOTION. ON
THIS TRACK...DOLLY WILL BE APPROACHING THE COAST OF THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND DOLLY COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE BY TOMORROW.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS
1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF TWO TO FOUR
INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO SIX INCHES.

REPEATING THE 100 PM CDT POSITION...22.8 N...90.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[Slapshot68]

I’m sure Global Warming has been blamed by now.

[al baby]

Time to flood Ray Nagin with e mails and phone calls to let him know that he should get the school bus’s warmed up in the bull pen ready to go just in case

[NormsRevenge]

Incoming!

[weegee]

Rove getting his revenge on Bush’s Texas?

[Slapshot68]

“Rove getting his revenge on Bush’s Texas?”

Dude, that’s a totally different conspiratorial paranoia.

;)

[deport]

South Texas beware and alert..... Maybe some needed rain headed that way with hopefully minimal winds.

[basil]

I'm deep in the heart of Texas--and we're praying to get some rain out of this. Big drought here, at the moment, and we really, really need rain.

Certainly not wishing anyone hardship, though......

[King_Corey]

I like how XTRP flys straight as an arrow. I mean, cmon, who did that one? The Lazy forcaster.

I imagine it’s “Here is yer dang forcast” swipes pencil along ruler, and hands back chart to the flunkie..

[txhurl]

The CLP5 model want to send us some rain, apropos the burnt orange one!

Other Dolly thread:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/chat/2048378/posts?page=236#236

[ravingnutter]

I'm praying for the rain from this too, we are really dry in the Hill Country. They even banned the sale of fireworks this year in our county.

But if that don't work I can always use my stand by...threatening to do a naked rain dance. My threats have worked several times before, but we only got a small amount each time, not enough to make a real difference. The joke around my house is that even God doesn't want to see me naked, LOL!

[deport]

You are pretty correct that it is nothing more than a straight line based upon the past 12 hours which doesn’t mean much as hurricanes wobble and change directions....

XTRP - Extrapolation using past 12-hr motion (NHC)

Who each projector is:
https://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pageid=2854,19728489&_dad=portal

[LoneStarGI]

While I am seriously praying that no one is harmed by this storm, I’m also praying to get some of that rain for my lawn. Central Texas’ has had something like 60+ straight days of 90%+ weather and nearly no rain.

[txhurl]

http://www.lcra.org/water/conditions/weather/weather_column.html

Bob Rose, LCRA meteorologist discusses Dolly’s potential impact on central TX.

‘Forecasted Impacts on the Austin/Central Texas Area: Sinking air on the periphery of Dolly will spread over southern and central Texas this afternoon, helping temperatures become very hot. Once today’s clouds break, high temperatures across the Hill Country and Central Texas will be near 100-102 degrees. Conditions across the region will be quiet this afternoon and tonight. On Tuesday, outer rain bands associated with the hurricane will begin moving inland over the middle and lower Texas coast. Rain and gusty winds will increase here Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday.

On Wednesday, a fairly widespread area of rain and thunderstorms will being spreading inland over the middle and lower Texas coast. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will also begin spreading inland over parts of Central Texas and the southern Hill Country. Wind speeds are expected to increase to tropical storm strength along the middle Texas coast Wednesday night into Thursday as the center moves inland over Deep South Texas. Based on the current forecast track, winds of 30 to 40 mph will be possible as far inland as Fayette County on Thursday. Wind gusts to near 50 mph will be possible near Matagorda Bay. Note, if the storm comes in further north, winds could be even stronger. Gusty winds of 15 to 25 mph can be expected across Central Texas and the southern Hill Country Wednesday night into Thursday. We’ll also need to watch for isolated tornadoes.’

[lormand]

We could use some rain here in Central Texas.

[Harold Shea]

I`m like you,my corn fields looks near death here
in Tn,just started tasseling and leaves curling.

Thats kinda unusual path for one of things to take
ain`t it

[Cailleach]

last year we were drowning, remember? lol this year...not so much.

Like I said in the other thread, Dolly, please send some rain to the Hill Country.

I washed my car...it’s too hot for rain dances, even nakie ones. :P

[McLynnan]

I’m with you. Praying Dolly moves up from the Gulf with some badly needed rainfall but no wind or flood damage. We need rain so badly in this part of Central Texas. Everything looks fried.