Posted on 07/13/2008 6:31:09 AM PDT by vietvet67
See, I think it will be a landslide....I just don’t know who will win.
The last two elections were Red/Blue, and rather evenly balanced. But that isn't cast in concrete forever; it requires a distinct difference between the candidates. We're unhappy with McCain because he's too eager to "reach across the aisle." That makes him vulnerable in the "Red" states. Obama tended to win primaries in "Red" southern states with big populations of blacks but with Republican majorities in the last two elections.So this will be a "purple" rather than a red/blue election - and whoever wins anywhere can, by and large, win anywhere else. There is no reason to think that such an election will necessarily be a nail-biter one election night - even if the polls look like it going in.
Think of it this way: even if two people toss honest 20 coins, so that the expected value of each is ten heads, you would not expect both of them actually to throw exactly ten heads. One would, probably, throw a different number than ten - and the other would, probably, throw a different number than that.
For the reasons the author of the piece cited, and because Obama did so poorly in the last few primaries, I think Obama will lose the general election. And more likely big than narrowly.
1,2 - requires a Constitutional Ammendment. Not likely to get those.
The rest - a lot more likely.
Obama rise to the threshold of the presidency is nothing if not magically swift. Just about this time 20 years ago, he was preparing to enter Harvard Law School in the fall of 1988. His election two years later to president of the Harvard Law Review as the first "black" to hold that position is the linchpin of his entire subsequent career, a chronology of which follows:
Late 1988, entered Harvard Law School.Summer 1989, interned at the law firm of Sidley & Austin in Chicago.
Feb. 1990, elected president of the Harvard Law Review. This was widely reported and was followed in the media by several long, detailed profiles.
Summer 1990, interned at the law firm of Hopkins & Sutter in Chicago.
1991, graduated from Harvard and returned to Chicago. He was recruited by the University of Chicago Law School, which gave him a fellowship and an office to work on a book about race relations. Obama never wrote that book. Instead, he and his wife went to Bali, where he wrote "Dreams From My Father." (Obama was a Lecturer at the University of Chicago Law School from 1992–1996, and a Senior Lecturer 1996–2004.)
Apr-Oct. 1992, Obama directed Illinois Project Vote.
1993, Obama joined Davis, Miner, Barnhill & Galland, a law firm specializing in civil rights litigation and neighborhood economic development. He was an associate from 1993 to 1996, then of counsel from 1996 to 2004. His law license becoming inactive in 2002.
1995, "Dreams From My Father" was published.
1996, Obama is elected to the Illinois state senate, where he served until being elected to the U.S. Senate.
2004, Obama was elected to the U.S. Senate. (He delivered the keynote address at the Democratic National Convention in July 2004, before the election.) He was sworn in early in January 2005, and immediately began planning his run for the presidency.
Oct. 2006, "The Audacity of Hope: Thoughts on Reclaiming the American Dream" was published.
Feb. 2007, Obama announced his candidacy for president. He had been a U.S. senator for just two years.
BTW, in addition to his breathtaking race up the ladder during those years, Obama served on a number of boards of directors between 1992 and 2002.
Let me make this as crystal clear as possible. OBAMA ANNOUNCED FOR THE PRESIDENCY ON THE BASIS OF 8 YEARS AS A STATE SENATOR AND 2 YEARS AS A U.S. SENATOR. That's it. That's the basis on which this man is building his presidential run. That, and his gadfly hopping around from one patronage position to another during the 1990's.
ALL of it rests on one affirmative-action achievement, which was his election as the first "black" president of the Harvard Law Review.
There are plenty of fully black high achievers in this country who are more qualified to be president than this arrogant twit. So why Obama? What, or who, made a junior senator think he should even consider a run for the presidency with such a light resume? Either he's the luckiest SOB on the planet, or he's somebody's sock puppet front man. There simply is no other logical conclusion.
Never understood how anyone could get this far with, essentially, nothing in the bank. That doesn't mean money. I vote for the "front man" hypothesis.
Denial just ain’t a river in Egypt.
Me too. Whether his Harvard Law Review presidency, and the subsequent media attention it garnered, brought him to the notice of a (ahem, cough) "mentor" who boosted him to where he is now, or someone bought that HLR presidency for him, we'll probably never know. We just know that was Obama's first step up the ladder.
What I do know is that such breathtakingly meteoric political rises to the doorstep of national executive leadership simply do not happen -- at least not historically in Western democratic forms of government. Heck, they rarely even happen in totalitarian governments, either. However, they do happen in coups and other forms of shortcuts to political power.
The quick rise of John F. Kennedy pales in comparison to Obama's rocketship ride to the top. JFK at least served with distinction the in Navy during WWI. He was in the Congress for 14 years before being elected president: a U.S. congressman for six years, then a senator for eight. Besides, we know who was behind Kennedy's rise, his old bootlegger father Joe, former ambassador to Great Britain.
I think McCain will win. I don’t know what the spread will be.
Correct, it is something practiced by some not so smart conservatives who took their ball home so no one else could play with it.
Perhaps the room is just too hot.
The tracking polls on 7/13/08 are a virtual tie (Rasmussen)which tells me that Obama is in some trouble. McCain may win 40 states...
...as many on these boards keep telling us, polls in July mean nothing...you are not factoring in Obama’s convention bump, which may put him up by 15%...then McCain must respond effectively, which I doubt he can do sufficiently (I keep thinking Bob Dole redux)...and as for McCain winning 40 states, that requires flipping seven or eight states Kerry won...which states is McCain going to flip...answer honestly...
You’re right Obama is superman McCain hasn’t a chance.
Disagree...he’s going to win..and unless he does something completely freaky, he’s going to win in a landslide..I’ve said this from day one...
...and you’re basing that on what...certainly not from a perusal of the EC map...by pollsters who don’t make their livings by being completely wrong...
The RNC cannot get enough volunteers for their convention.
People in the convention area are putting their homes up for rent with no takers.
McCain is a most unlikeable candidate.
You’re right Obama is superman McCain hasn’t a chance...
...hey, simply asking you to back up your postion with a realistic argument...
In fact, I've already made a monetary bet with somebody on this site. I'm really fairly confident. I'm pretty good at picking winners.
It's only going to get worse for Obama. He's just too inexperienced. And that inexperience is bringing him down.
Only 57 states! / laughing
OK:
If Hillary were the nominee do you think that she would only be up 2-3 points? You have to ask yourself why this is. BHO may get a bump after the convention. Then again he is quite capable of jumping he shark and going off script.
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