Posted on 06/25/2008 5:39:54 PM PDT by shrinkermd
Record oil prices have failed to temper the enthusiasm of Chinese auto buyers. In 2006, 6.2 million cars were sold in China, enough for the Middle Kingdom to surpass Japan for #2 in total vehicle sales (the United States still sells twice as many). In the first five months of 2008, Chinese auto sales show no signs of decelerating, up 17.4% from the same period last year.
The rise in Chinese auto sales has been so dramatic that projections by China’s government for auto sales in 2020 were already exceeded by 2005.
Millions of tons of copper, nickel, aluminum have gone into China’s car frenzy, boosting the commodity prices of every raw material involved. But the most pressing consequence of China's great leap into the culture of happy motoring is its impact on crude oil demand.
Assuming that the 7.3 million new car owners in 2008 each drive 5,000 miles a year, and they achieve 40 miles per gallon, the result would be an additional 45.6 million barrels of crude demand, equivalent to 125,000 bbl/day. In other words, new Chinese drivers will devour 25-30% of the recently promised Saudi production increase in a single year.
To those predicting an imminent decline in world oil demand, we say: don't bet on it.
(Excerpt) Read more at caseyresearch.com ...
do we have people in nigeria?
there’s a lot of light sweet crude there at the disposal of terrorists.
Uh...price does tend to do that. Demand estimates are already being revised downward.
Nice post. Breaks it down in a simple manner. Conspiracy theorists would have hard time getting around those figures.
“Dude, where’s my commodities?”
They were doing the same with concrete and galvanize steel 4 years ago.
What truly amazes me is all the things we get from China that I would never guess. I went to the local farmers market in a really small town near me a couple days ago to pick up some produce- I grabbed a braid of garlic and was surprised when I got home to see a tag on it that said it was imported from China. It is really getting crazy- I hear some people are boycotting products from China, must be hard.
Your commodities are in the bathroomities, Dude.
Bargain shoppers for food items in particular. Truth in food labeling/origin would be sporting. “Distributed by” doesn’t leave US consumers with the confidence that is necessary when they go to the supermarket to buy those things they need to feed their families. And like other products maybe people would rather spend their money on an American company, where those dollars will circulate back into the economy. Gilroy Farms, in California,
produces a lot better tasting garlic. If we don’t support American companies then eventually there will be no choice, absurd as it sounds.
Whenever I go to the bank, I like to ask for a $2 roll of nickels. It’s an inside joke. A $2 roll of nickel contains $4 worth of nickel and copper. In a year or two they’ll replace them with steel or zinc slugs. For now, enjoy getting “free money” from the bank.
I am not exactly boycotting China- but not going out of my way to support them either. If I had noticed the tag before I bought the garlic I wouldn’t have bought it - I never dreamed a farmers market would sell anything from China. I have been buying there for years and their produce is local when in season and usually comes from near by states if not in season here- especially CA.
I will buy “Made in America” if I can. But it can be difficult. A month ago I needed a new hose reel. Two models in the price range I wanted; one made here, one in made in China. I bought the American made model. Took it home and the hose would not thread properly on the stupid cheap plastic piece. Had to go buy another reel. Went to a different store, and paid more than I wanted for a different American made model.
I was not happy.
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