[palmer]

I expect the signal of a normal El Nino to rise well above the noise. The one thing of interest is that the PDO shift could mean that there won't be an El Nino over the next five years

True and true. But the LT with its corrections depicts the 0.17C / decade trend plus ENSO. The signal of a normal El Nino will rise well above the noise (if you are correct that trend will continue. Why would you think the warming trend would not show up in LT but only in the surface measurements? If there is no El Nino within five years I will call it a tie except if we have a record without El Nino.

[cogitator]

Why would you think the warming trend would not show up in LT but only in the surface measurements?

I think it will show up, but the "record" is stated in terms of the surface measurements. And there isn't a real tight linkage between the surface and LT measurements. They can diverge.

If there is no El Nino within five years I will call it a tie except if we have a record without El Nino.

No problem. The next five years will be interesting!