[palmer]

The record is in the LT measurements. Look again at post 63, there is obviously record warming in 1998. The surface charts you are posting are flawed for many reasons. One that your link doesn't mention is the update to the US temperatures pointed out in 2007 by McIntyre. (yes, the effect on the world wasn't as much as on the U.S.) The pivot points and combining of different measurement records is a bigger problem (e.g. here: http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=2033) If you want to avoid these problems and look strictly at atmospheric trends with profound ENSO influences, look at the atmosphere. If you want the ENSO somewhat smoothed out but at the cost of opaque and questionable adjustments, go ahead and use your data. We'll see where we are in five years (presuming an El Nino will happen by then).

[cogitator]

The record is in the LT measurements.

What I meant was: when the phrase "new global temperature record" is used, it isn't about the 28 year satellite temperature record; it's about the ~130 year (too lazy to search out the exact "official" length) surface instrumental record. Yes, I know there are flaws -- and corrections. Same goes for the MSU TLT. (Or do you think Wentz and Co. have it all figured out now?)

If you want the ENSO somewhat smoothed out but at the cost of opaque and questionable adjustments, go ahead and use your data. We'll see where we are in five years (presuming an El Nino will happen by then).

I expect the signal of a normal El Nino to rise well above the noise. The one thing of interest is that the PDO shift could mean that there won't be an El Nino over the next five years -- so either there will be a new global temperature record without one, or (as I expect, with no other support for that expectation other than "that's how nature works") the Pacific will still manage to foster an El Nino.