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To: palmer
And alarmists like yourself are already pointing to the next El Nino which has yet to occur as evidence of global warming.

That's not really a fair statement. I expect that the next year with a big El Nino will set a new global temperature record because the enhancement of warm temperatures caused by El Nino will take place "on top of" the underlying warming trend. If there was any reason to think there was a real significant cooling trend, I couldn't state my prediction with confidence.

The global temperatures of 2005 were the best evidence of global warming that the global temperature record can provide. However, the anomalous nature of 1998 has to be understood to put the 2005 temperatures in context. If 1998 is not properly seen as anomalous, then what the 2005 temperatures signify will not be perceived. (And there are a lot of people for which that's happening.)

61 posted on 06/23/2008 11:14:09 AM PDT by cogitator
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To: cogitator
That's not really a fair statement. I expect that the next year with a big El Nino will set a new global temperature record because the enhancement of warm temperatures caused by El Nino will take place "on top of" the underlying warming trend.

Ok, so we'll say 0.1 degrees or greater (should be 0.173 per decade but I'll spot you the 0.7) above 1998 using lower troposphere satellite measurements (e.g. http://www.ssmi.com/msu/msu_data_description.html#msu_decadal_trends) which will reflect both the warming trend and the El Nino without the need for murky adjustments.

65 posted on 06/23/2008 6:09:50 PM PDT by palmer (Tag lines are an extra $1)
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